Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 211155

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
658 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1130 UTC.


At 21/1200 UTC, Hurricane Maria is located near 19.9N 68.7W or 
about 82 nm NNW of Punta Cana, Dominican Republic. The present 
movement of Maria is northwest at 8 kt. The estimated minimum 
central pressure is 959 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 100 kt 
with gusts to 120 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 135 
nm of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is elsewhere within 175 nm of the center. The eye of 
Hurricane Maria will continue to pass offshore of the 
northeastern coast of the Dominican Republic today. Maria should 
then move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern 
Bahamas tonight and Friday. Please see the latest NHC 
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC 
for more details.

At 21/1200 UTC, Tropical Storm Jose is located about 130 nm SE 
of Nantucket, Massachusetts near 39.6N 68.1W, stationary. The 
estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained 
winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection prevails mainly in the NW quadrant of the storm from 
39N to 44N between 67W and 74W. Jose is expected to meander off 
the coast of southeast New England for the next several days. 
Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO 
headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.


A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 18N39W to 07N38W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in a region
of low to moderate vertical wind shear and is in an environment 
of moderate moisture as indicated by CIRA LPW and SSMI TPW 
imagery. However, some Saharan dry air and dust intrusion to the 
west environment of the wave is evident in enhanced IR imagery 
and CIRA LPW imagery. Upper level diffluence support scattered 
moderate convection from 07N to 17N between 33W and 44W.


The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N17W to 
12N30W to 08N44W. The ITCZ extends from that point to 09N51W to
09N60W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical 
wave, scattered moderate/isolated strong convection is occurring 
off of the coast of Africa from 05N to 11N E of 21W.



Surface low pressure dominate the Gulf SW waters and the Yucatan
Peninsula with a trough extending from 21N92W to southern 
Guatemala supporting scattered showers and tstms in the Bay of
Campeche. Fresh winds are associated with this surface trough. In
the SE basin, a 1013 mb low is located near 25N86W, which is 
forecast to dissipate during the next couple of hours. Otherwise, 
a surface ridge over the SE CONUS extends to the NE Gulf where it 
is anchored by a 1016 mb high near 28N88W. An upper level ridge 
over the basin and dry air subsidence support fair weather
elsewhere in the basin. Easterly light to moderate winds are 
across much of the Gulf. Expect little change over the next 48 


The core of Hurricane Maria is over Atlc waters NE of eastern
Dominican Republic, however tropical storm winds still reach a
portion of NW Puerto Rico. Scattered heavy showers and tstms 
continue over the western half of Puerto Rico while numerous 
heavy showers are across the Mona Passage and the eastern half 
of the Dominican Republic. Showers over Puerto Rico are likely 
to continue through this evening potentially generating flash 
See the special features section for further details. Strong 
winds and high seas associated with Maria prevail in the NE 
Caribbean mainly N of 16N. The eastern extent of the Pacific 
monsoon trough extends across Costa Rica, Panama through 
Colombia supporting isolated showers and tstms in the SW 
Caribbean S of 15N W of 79W. Winds and seas associated with 
Maria will gradually diminish through early Friday as the 
cyclone moves farther NW over the SW N Atlc waters.


A hurricane warning prevails for the northern Dominican Republic 
while a tropical storm warning is along the southern region. A 
dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves 
will raise water levels by as much as 4-6 feet above normal tide 
levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, 
and 1-3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican 
Republic and Haiti. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory.
Numerous strong convection is occuring over the E Dominican
Republic spreading across the rest of the Island as Maria
continuen to move NW over SW N Atlc waters.


Please refer to Special Features section for more information on 
Hurricane Maria and Tropical Storm Jose. A 1011 mb low - the 
remnants of Lee - is located near 19N48W. No significant deep 
convection is currently occurring with this low and it has a low 
chance of redevelopment as a tropical cyclone in the next two 
days. A surface trough over the central Atlantic extends from 
30N45W to 23N48W, which is being supported by an upper-level 
trough. Scattered showers and tstms are observed from 21N to 31N 
between 40W and 49W. The remainder of the basin remains under the 
influence of a broad Bermuda-Azores high centered north of the 

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Page last modified: Thursday, 21-Sep-2017 11:56:00 UTC