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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

000
AXNT20 KNHC 272319
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
705 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN... 

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA 
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL 
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH 
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR 
MORE DETAILS. 

...GALE WARNING FOR THE E ATLANTIC...

GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO DUE TO A 
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AZORES HIGH AND 
LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE 
THE METEO-FRANCE FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW FOR MORE 
DETAILS.  

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                      

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 00N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4S BETWEEN 20W-41W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...           

A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1041 MB HIGH CENTERED 
OVER THE UPPER MID WEST EXTENDS S ACROSS THE GULF. A WEAK 1022 
MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N96W. THIS LOW IS EXTENDING 
ITS COLD FRONT TO THE W ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS THEN REACHING 
NE MEXICO...WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS LOW OR ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TO 
THE SE...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 
TO THE E ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS THEN INTO THE ATLANTIC. 
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 50 NM OF EACH SIDE OF 
THIS FRONT. A GENTLE TO MODERATE NE FLOW IS OBSERVED IN 
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE BASIN.  
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE WEAK LOW OVER THE W GULF 
TO DISSIPATE. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SE GULF IS EXPECTED 
TO WEAKEN BUT ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE 
VICINITY OF IT. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NW CUBA 
THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS 
BOUNDARY IS ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE 
YUCATAN CHANNEL AFFECTING THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WATERS. A MOIST 
AIRMASS PREVAILS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN...WHICH 
TRANSPORTED BY THE STRONG TRADE WINDS IS GENERATING ISOLATED 
CONVECTION THAT CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO 
RICO AND HISPANIOLA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN 
TONIGHT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL 
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE 
TRADES ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA MAINLY E OF 80W WHILE 
SLIGHT TO GENTLE SE FLOW PREVAILS W OF 80W. OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO WEAKEN ALTHOUGH 
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF IT.  

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 

A MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT WILL CONTINUE MOVING 
OVER THE ISLAND WITH THE TRADES. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...    

A FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT 
EXTENDS FROM 31N69W TO 28N74W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AND 
EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS N OF THE 
BOUNDARIES MAINLY N OF 28N. FARTHER EAST...SURFACE RIDGING 
ANCHORED BY A LARGE 1038 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED JUST S OF THE 
AZORES SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS 
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC S OF 32N. A TIGHT PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE 
SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS JUST 
OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES 
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR 
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BECOME STATIONARY THEN TRANSITION TO SHEAR 
LINE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN 
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND THEN THE SHEAR LINE. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
ERA