000 AXNT20 KNHC 302313 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Tue Jul 1 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 27W, and extends southward from 16N. It is moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the southern end of the wave axis from 06N to 10N between 21W and 32W. A second Atlantic tropical wave axis is along 39W, from 16N southward, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. A few showers are near the wave axis. A tropical wave is reaching the Lesser Antilles. Its axis is along 61W. Convection is limited near the wave axis. A tropical wave continues to move westward at 15 to 20 kt across the central Caribbean. Its axis extends from Jamaica to near the Colombia/Panama border. The wave, combined with an upper-level low located over the western Caribbean, is enhancing convection over parts of Jamaica and regional waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and extends westward to 09N41W. The ITCZ extends from 09N41W to 06N57W. Convection is limited. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A ridge dominates the Gulf of America region. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the remnant low of Barry, located inland Mexico, supports an area of fresh to strong SE winds over the western Gulf, particularly from 20N to 26N W of 93W. Moderate to locally fresh SE are noted elsewhere S of 27N and W of 90W. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds dominate the remainder of the Gulf region, with mainly moderate winds across the Straits of Florida. Slight to moderate seas prevail, with the highest seas of 5 to 7 ft within the strongest winds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed across the basin. For the forecast, winds and seas are gradually improving across the western Gulf as the remnants of Barry continue to dissipate inland across eastern Mexico. Scattered squalls and thunderstorms are expected to continue W of 94W from Veracruz to Brownsville through Tue. Otherwise, weak high pressure will persist across the eastern Gulf through midweek, before a weak cold front sinks southward across north Florida and adjacent Gulf waters Fri, and is forecast to stall in the northern Gulf through Sat. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could develop from the weakening front by the weekend off the southeast U.S., over Florida, or over the eastern Gulf. Some gradual tropical or subtropical development could occur thereafter as the low moves little. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean, and a second one is reaching the Lesser Antilles. Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for more information. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low continues to support fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. The strongest winds, in the 25 to 30 kt range are seen offshore Colombia based on scatterometer data. Seas of 7 to 10 ft are within these winds. Moderate to fresh trades are over the eastern and SW Caribbean, with mainly moderate winds over the NW part of the basin. Moderate seas prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of Cuba, and in the vicinity of Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua where slight seas are noted. An upper-level low over the western Caribbean is helping to induce showers and thunderstorms over parts of Cuba, Jamaica and Hispaniola. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure across NW Colombia and the SW Caribbean will support fresh to strong trades and rough seas across most of the central and SW Caribbean through Wed, then diminish N of 15N into the upcoming weekend. Winds will pulse at night to near-gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela into Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for more details. High pressure, and its associated ridge, dominates the entire Atlantic forecast area, with a 1024 mb center located S of Bermuda near 27N64W, and another center of 1029 mb situated W of the Azores near 39N37W. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and moderate to rough seas are affecting the waters from 20N to 28N E of 25W, including between the Canary Islands due to the pressure gradient between the Azores high and lower pressures over W Africa. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh winds are observed S of 25N, with gentle to moderate winds N of 25N. Moderate seas are noted within these winds. An upper-level low, now centered just N of the NW Bahamas, is promoting scattered showers and thunderstorms over the waters W of 70W, including the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and S Florida. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High is expected to maintain a ridge W to E along about 30N through Wed, then begin to drift eastward and weaken modestly through late week. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail S of 25N through Thu. Fresh to locally strong E winds will pulse from late afternoon into the overnight hours N of Hispaniola through the period. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere. A weak cold front is forecast to move off the SE U.S. coast and into the NW zones early Fri, then stall there through Sat. Low pressure may form along the front during this time. $$ GR
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 01-Jul-2025 03:06:09 UTC