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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 251138
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
705 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

CORRECTED TO INCLUDE SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON NIGHT...REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE NEAR 
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. A GALE WARNING 
HAS BEEN ISSUED.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 8N13W AND 
CONTINUES OVER THE E ATLC WATERS TO NEAR 05N23W. THE ITCZ BEGINS 
NEAR 05N23W AND CONTINUES ALONG 06N34W TO 05N40W TO 06N48W TO 
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 5N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 10W-20W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

AS OF 0900 UTC...A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA 
OVER WESTERN CUBA INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. THE FRONT WILL EXIT 
THE GULF REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN ITS 
WAKE. WINDS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE AREA AND CURRENTLY THE 
STRONGEST WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE OBSERVED PER SCATTEROMETER AND 
SURFACE DATA OVER THE SW GULF S OF 21N E OF 95W...INCLUDING THE 
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND WITHIN AROUND 150 NM NW OF THE FRONT OVER 
THE EASTERN GULF. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH  
THROUGH TONIGHT. DOPPLER RADAR REVEALS A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF 
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS AFFECTING SE FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA 
KEYS AS WELL AS HAVANA CUBA. AT UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY SHOWED PLENTY OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE 
GULF REGION FROM SE MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE SE 
CONUS IN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL 
APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST SAT AFTERNOON...SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE 
NW GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...   

FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA. SCATTEROMETER PASSES CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE 
WIND SPEEDS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE NW 
CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS JUST MOVED INTO THE FAR 
NW CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  
SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW CONTINUES TO 
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING 
SHOWERS. SOME OF THEM ARE AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES. PASSING 
SHOWERS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS 
ACCORDING TO THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE 
WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON NIGHT. 
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS.  THE  COLD FRONT WILL STALL 
FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS THIS AFTERNOON AND 
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE 
WITH AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN...THEN ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS DOMINATES 
THE BASIN PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE 
ADVECTING MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. 
COMPUTER MODELS SUGGESTS THAT A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL 
REACH THE GREATER ANTILLES ON SUN WITH A BAND OF MOISTURE 
EXTENDING ACROSS PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA.

HISPANIOLA...                   

A GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTING 
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. A 
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE 
AND THE RISK OF SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY BY SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...   

THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO 
HAS ENTERED THE SW N ATLC. AS OF 0900 UTC...THE FRONT EXTENDS 
FROM 31N78W TO SOUTH FLORIDA. A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED 
TSTMS IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NOW IS APPROACHING THE NW 
BAHAMAS. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 31N70W TO 
WESTERN CUBA THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BOUNDARY 
WILL STALL AND LIFT NORTHWARD FRI AS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE 
BOUNDARY SHIFTS EASTWARD. BY FRI NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR 25N65W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE FRONT WILL 
CONTINUE SINKING SLOWLY SOUTH WHILE WEAKENING REACHING THE SE 
BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY SAT NIGHT AND LIKELY THE 
GREATER ANTILLES...AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...BY SUN. FARTHER 
EAST...A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 28N65W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC COVERING 
ALSO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MODERATE TO 
LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE ALSO 
NOTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. A COLD FRONT 
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW PRES CENTER LOCATED N OF AREA 
ENTERS THE FORECAST REGION NEAR 31N28W THE EXTENDS SW TO 24N34W 
TO 20N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT 
WITHIN AROUND 150 NM N OF 25N AND WITHIN 60 NM S OF 25N. COLD 
AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE ROTATING 
AROUND THE LOW PRES SYSTEM AND COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS N OF 
24N W OF FRONT TO ABOUT 46W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRES 
AND THE RIDGE TO THE W IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF FRESH TO 
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...ESPECIALLY N 
OF 26N BETWEEN 40W AND 47W. FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. A RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF 
ATLANTIC FORECAST AREA. ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN IS 
OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
GR


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Page last modified: Thursday, 25-Dec-2014 11:38:26 UTC