Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 291719

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
119 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.


A cold front is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico extending in
30 hours from 30N92W to 22N95W to 19N95W. Gale force winds are
expected to develop south of 26N and west of the front by that
time. These conditions will continue through early Monday, when
the front will be over the eastern portion of the basin and hence,  
the pressure gradient will relax across the southwest Gulf. 
Please read the latest National Hurricane Center High Seas 
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more 


The Monsoon Trough remains over Africa. A surface trough extends
from 08N15W to 04N16W. The ITCZ extends west of this trough from 
03N18W to 00N32W to 02N40W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed along and near the surface trough between
14W-20W. Another area of scattered moderate convection prevails
within 150 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 30W-50W.



A surface ridge extends across the northern half of the basin 
from a high pressure currently centered over the western and
central Atlantic. An area of low pressure centered over northern 
Texas extends across Mexico and the western half of the Gulf. 
These features are generating enough pressure gradient to support 
moderate to fresh southerly winds across the basin, with some
isolated areas of strong winds possible. No significant 
convection is observed across the basin at this time. Over the 
next 24-48 hours, a cold front will enter the western Gulf and
continue moving east through Monday. Gale-force winds are expected
to develop west of the front. Please refer to the section above
for details.


The pressure gradient across the basin is supporting moderate to 
fresh trades mainly over the eastern half of the basin, while
moderate winds prevail across the western half. A diffluent flow 
prevails over the northeast Caribbean mainly over Hispaniola, 
Puerto Rico, and the Leeward Islands supporting cloudiness and 
isolated showers north of 16N and east of 72W. Dry air and 
subsidence are limiting convection across the remainder of the 
area. A cluster of moderate to strong convection prevails over the
EPAC near the Gulf of Panama affecting portions of Central America
and its adjacent waters. Over the next 24 hours, the showers and 
thunderstorms will increase over the southwestern Caribbean in 
response to low-level convergence across the area. Otherwise, 
little change is expected.


A diffluent flow aloft prevails across the island supporting
cloudiness and isolated showers. Scattered moderate convection is
expected to develop in afternoon and evening hours. Similar
scenario is expected during the next 24 hours.


A surface ridge prevails across the basin anchored by a 1028 mb
high centered near 32N64W and a 1031 mb high near 35N42W. An 
upper-level trough with axis extending from east to west from 
26N58W to 25N75W is enhancing convection over the northeast
Caribbean and adjacent northern coastal waters. To the east, a 
1012 mb surface low is centered near 25N24W. A surface trough
extends from the low to 22N26W while a weakening stationary front
extends from the low to 28N22W to 31N12W. Expect for this low and
fronts to dissipate within the next 24 hours. Little change is
expected elsewhere.

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Page last modified: Saturday, 29-Apr-2017 17:19:24 UTC