Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 282359

805 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                  

Tropical Storm Bonnie is centered near 31.1N 79.4W at 28/2100
UTC or about 108 NM south-southeast of Charleston South Carolina
moving northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45
kt. Bonnie is a sheared storm thus convection is mostly nw of
the center along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina.
Scattered moderate convection is from 31N-34N between 79W-82W.
See latest NHC intermediate public advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                  

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along
28W/29W from 03N-13N moving west near 15 kt. Wave is embedded
within a low amplitude 700 mb trough. Scattered moderate
convection is from 5N-8N between 27W-31W. 

Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends along
59W/60W south of 9N to inland over Guyana South America moving
west 10-15 kt. Wave is embedded within a low amplitude 700 mb
trough. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the
wave axis. 

Tropical wave in the southwest Caribbean extends along 77W south
of 14N to inland over Colombia moving west near 25 kt. Wave is
embedded within a 700 mb trough south of 11N. Scattered moderate
convection is within 90 nm of the wave axis. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                    

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 09N13W to 07N16W to 06N28W. The ITCZ resumes west
of a tropical wave near 05N30W to 04N40W to South America near
04N51W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is along the
coast of west Africa from 08N-12N between 05W-15W due to the
monsoon trough. 


GULF OF MEXICO...                                            

A 1018 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico near
29N85W. A 1002 mb low is centered over central Mexico near
25N103W. The surface pressure gradient tightens over the western
Gulf, thus 15-20 kt SE winds are over the W Gulf west of 90W.
The remainder of the Gulf has 10 kt SE winds. Scattered moderate
convection is over southern Louisiana from 29N-31N between 88W-
94W. Further south, clusters of scattered moderate to convection
are inland over Mexico between 96W-101W. Radar imagery shows
scattered showers over central and south Florida, and over west
Cuba. Fair weather is over the remainder of the Gulf. In the
upper levels, a ridge is over Texas and the W Gulf. Elsewhere,
an upper level trough is over the E Gulf and Florida. Expect
over the next 24 hours for the surface high to dissipate and
another high to form over N Louisiana. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                               

A tropical wave is over the SW Caribbean along 77W.  See above.
The remainder of the Caribbean has 10-15 kt tradewinds.
Presently scattered moderate convection is inland over Panama,
Costa Rica, and N Colombia. Scattered showers are over Cuba,
Jamaica, and Hispaniola. Elsewhere, scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is are over the eastern Caribbean
east of 68W. In the upper levels the base of an upper level
trough is along 75W. Upper level diffluence east of the axis is
enhancing the convection over the eastern Caribbean. Expect over
the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to move west to the
Eastern Pacific. Also expect an upper level low to be over the N
Bahamas with continued diffluence and convection over the
eastern Caribbean.


Presently scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms are
over the island.  Expect more convection over the next 24 hours
due to upper level diffluence.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                             

See Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm
Bonnie. Over the central Atlantic a 1025 mb high is centered
near 29N48W. Another 1025 mb high is centered over the eastern
Atlantic near 28N31W. A weak 1022 low is centered near 27N36W.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the center. Another weak
1022 mb low is centered over the eastern Atlantic near 28N25W.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the center.  Of note in
the upper levels, upper level diffluence southeast of the
Florida upper level low is producing isolated moderate
convection north of Hispaniola from 20N-28N between 65W-76W. 

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Page last modified: Saturday, 28-May-2016 23:59:39 UTC