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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 301024
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 18N71W TO 11N72W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS 
BEING SUPPORTED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH AT 700 MB AND CONTINUES 
EMBEDDED IN A SHALLOW MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. DRY AIR 
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT IN THIS REGION OF THE BASIN ALONG WITH 
STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF 
CONVECTION AT THE TIME.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES TO 8N25W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 
8N25W AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N38W TO 9N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
FROM 5N-11N E OF 40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WEST OF THE ITCZ ALONG 
13N48W TO 6N51W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

A COLD FRONT BEING SUPPORTED BY A BROAD MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL 
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF 
FROM FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W TO 28N90W TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. WEAK 
SURFACE RIDGING IS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE 
BASIN...WHICH IS PROVIDING WITH N-NE WIND FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 5-
10 KT. A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF ALONG 
28N85W TO 24N85W WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS BEING ALONG THE TROUGH 
AXIS. ANOTHER WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS BEING ANALYZED AS A 
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 23N93W TO 18N93W. 
SHALLOW MOISTURE ADVECTED TO THE SW GULF FROM THE REMNANTS OF 
TROPICAL CYCLONE HANNA SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 160 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS 
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT AND 
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE 
BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER WEEKEND. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                              

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE 
HANNA LINGERS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL 
AMERICA...WHICH ALONG A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT CONTINUE TO 
FUEL SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 20N W 
OF 81W. IN THE SW BASIN...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 
12N BEING ENHANCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT CROSSES CENTRAL 
PANAMA TO NW COLOMBIA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BEING SUPPORTED BY AN INVERTED LOW-LEVEL 
TROUGH...HOWEVER STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT IN THIS 
REGION OF THE BASIN ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL 
WIND SHEAR HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. SEE 
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. AN AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE CENTERED NE OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IS ADVECTING MOISTURE 
TO PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA THAT IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS 
AT THE TIME. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO 
MOVE TOWARDS WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE 
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT W-NW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN 
IT IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION INTO A SURFACE TROUGH WITH 
THE SOUTHERN END BRUSHING NORTHERN HISPANIOLA. 

HISPANIOLA...     

SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NE OF 
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE ISLAND BY NE 
WIND FLOW. THIS IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND 
AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT WATERS. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO 
INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE 
WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH JUST N OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SHORT-WAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW N ATLC SUPPORT A 
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 28N71W TO 23N73W THAT IS ENHANCING ISOLATED 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 69W-73W. NE OF THE VIRGIN 
ISLANDS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED AS A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 
19N64W CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 60W-63W AND SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 57W-63W. A MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A 
COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N34W SW TO 25N48W WHERE IT 
TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 25N54W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WEST OF THE TAIL OF THE FRONT FROM 24N-28N 
BETWEEN 57W-63W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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Page last modified: Thursday, 30-Oct-2014 10:24:22 UTC