Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 241031

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
631 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1015 UTC.


The center of Tropical Storm Harvey on 24/0900 UTC is near 23.2N 
92.8W, or about 321 nm SE of Port Mansfield Texas, moving N at 9 
kt. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Numerous strong 
convection is from 21N-25N between 90W-94W. Scattered moderate 
convection is elsewhere from 20N-26N between 89W-95W. 
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Harvey 
is expected to become a hurricane by Friday. Please see PUBLIC 
ADVISORIES issued under the WMO/AWIPS header WTNT34 KNHC/ 
WTNT24 KNHC/MIATCMAT4 for more details.


A tropical wave is off the W coast of Africa. The wave axis 
extends from 17N18W to 12N21W to 05N22W, moving W at 10 kt. The 
CIRA LPW imagery shows abundant moisture at low levels. The wave 
is also associated with a 700 mb trough. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is E of the wave axis from 12N-16N 
between 17W-20W.

A tropical wave extends from 23N39W to a 1010 mb low located near
17N39W to 10N39W, moving W at 15 kt. Satellite imagery indicates 
a large area of cloudiness in association with this wave, but 
convection is limited. This wave remains in a very moist area 
based on TPW imagery and has a well pronounced 700 mb trough.

A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean and 
extends from 21N81W through Panama to the E Pacific near 05N81W 
moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough, and is
well depicted in the SSMI TPW moisture imagery. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is from 11N-15N between 77W- 
84W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 90 nm of the wave 


The monsoon trough extends from 14N17W to 12N20W to 15N30W to 
17N39W to 12N44W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis 
continues from 12N44W to 07N58W. Besides the convection mentioned
in the tropical wave section, widely scattered moderate
convection is from 07N-13N between 26W-32W, and from 08N-10N 
between 35W-43W. 



The main concern in the basin is Tropical Storm Harvey moving
towards the Texas coast. Watches and warnings have been issued.
Please, see the Special Features section for details. As of 
24/0900 UTC, a surface trough is over the E Gulf of Mexico from 
29N83W to 24N85W. Scattered moderate convection is E of the trough
axis from 24N-26N between 81W-83W. In the upper levels, an upper 
level low is centered over NE Mexico near 24N99W, and an upper 
level high is over the central Gulf. Expect heavy rain and 
localized flooding over portions of the Florida peninsula during 
the next few days due to the surface trough. 


A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean Sea. 
Please, see Tropical Waves section for details. Scattered  
moderate to isolated strong convection is over the SW Caribbean
from 11N-15N between 76W-84W. Scattered showers are also over 
Costa Rica and Panama due to the eastern extent of the Pacific 
monsoon trough. Expect the W Caribbean and Central America to have
more convection over the next 24 hours mostly due to the tropical


Mostly fair weather is presently over the island. Daytime 
heating, local sea breezes and mountain upslope lifting will 
continue to combine with available moisture to produce scattered 
showers and thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon and evening
hours today. 


Two tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic. Please see 
above. Scattered moderate convection is over the northern and 
central Bahamas from 22N-26N between 75W-80W. A 1023 mb high is 
centered over the central Atlantic near 40N46W. Of note in the 
upper levels, an upper level low is also centered near 32N63W. 
Expect a surface low to form off the coast of Jacksonville Florida
Friday evening with convection.

For additional information please visit 


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Page last modified: Thursday, 24-Aug-2017 10:32:05 UTC