Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 102328

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
628 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2315 UTC.


A cold front extends across the west Atlantic waters from 32N66W
to 22N73W, then becomes stationary from that point to 10N80W. 
Strong high pressure continues to build west of the front across 
the Gulf of Mexico and west Caribbean. With this, the pressure
gradient is strong enough to support gale force winds mainly 
between the front and the coasts of Nicaragua, Costa Rica and 
northern Panama. These conditions will continue through early 
Tuesday. By that time, the front will weaken. See the latest NWS 
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC 
for more details.


The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 07N11W to 
05N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 05N22W to
04N36W to 05N52W. No significant convection is observed within
these boundaries at this time.



Strong surface high pressure prevails across the entire basin
being anchored by a 1036 mb high over northeast Mexico. Deep 
layer dry air continues to support fair weather. Scatterometer
data depicts gentle to moderate northerly winds across the basin.
The ridge will prevail across the Gulf through Monday ahead of 
the next cold front that will enter the northern portion of the
basin by Tuesday morning. This new front will move across Florida
and the east Gulf through Wednesday supporting fresh northwest 
winds mainly across the northeastern waters. Moderate northerly 
winds will prevail across the basin through Thursday.


The main feature in the basin is a stationary front extending from
the Windward Passage near 19N75W to northern Panama. Strong pressure
gradient building west of the front across the west Caribbean is 
resulting in gale-force winds between the front and the coasts of 
Nicaragua, Costa Rica and northern Panama. See the section above
for details. Scattered showers are within 105 nm on either side 
of the front. Deep layer dry air supports fair weather elsewhere.
The front will begin drifting east again during the next 24 hours
reaching the central Caribbean while weakening.


Isolated showers are in the Windward Passage due to the proximity
of a stationary front to the west. This activity is forecast to 
continue through Tuesday as the front drifts east before dissipating


Southwesterly flow aloft is noted on water vapor imagery over the
west Atlantic between a mid to upper-level trough over the 
eastern CONUS and Florida peninsula and an upper-level ridge 
anchored over adjacent waters between Panama and Colombia. The 
troughing supports the Special Features' cold front, which 
extends from 32N66W to the Windward Passage near 19N75W. 
Scattered showers are occurring generally within 105 nm along and
east of the front. To the east, a surface trough extends from
30N43W to 22N46W with scattered showers between 38W-47W. The 
remainder basin is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored
by a 1030 high centered southwest of the Azores. Expect for the
front to continue drifting east during the next 48 hours while
weakening. The trough over the central Atlantic is forecast to 
drift westward through Monday with convection.

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Page last modified: Sunday, 10-Dec-2017 23:29:00 UTC