Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 231030

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1015 UTC.


A cold front across the western Gulf extends from Mobile Alabama 
to Tampico Mexico. The front will sweep across the remainder of 
the Gulf through early Tuesday with gale force northerly winds 
expected to develop S of 21N W of 95W later this morning as the 
pressure gradient tightens. Please see the latest NWS High Seas 
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more 


A tropical wave extends from 17N51W to 06N53W, moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing and a maximum in 850 mb 
relative vorticity east of the wave axis. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 09N-15N between 42W-52W, and enhanced by a 
mid-level trough along 60W.

A tropical wave is moving across Central America along 90W south 
of 21N, and moving W at 5-10 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb 
troughing and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity along the 
wave axis. Scattered moderate convection is from 13N-19N between 


The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 11N17W to 
07N24W to 04N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-05N 
between 15W-19W.



A vigorous middle to upper level trough moving into the SE U.S. 
supports the cold front mentioned above. A pre-frontal trough 
extends from 27N88W to 21N90W. Low-level moisture convergence 
and mid-level divergence is generating scattered showers and 
isolated tstms across the eastern Gulf N of 25N E of the front. 
The cold front is expected to sweep across the remainder of the 
basin through Tuesday with fresh to strong northerly winds 
spreading eastward in wake of the front. Strong high pressure 
will move into the western Gulf Wednesday night.


The combination of a tropical wave along 90W and favorable upper 
level winds over the W Caribbean supports scattered showers and 
isolated tstms W of a line from the Yucatan Channel near 22N86W 
to northern Colombia near 11N74W...including Central America. 
Moderate to fresh trades prevail over most of the W Caribbean, 
and fresh to strong trades prevail E of 75W from the pressure 
gradient associated with high pressure in the western N Atlc.


Dry air and NW flow aloft will support fair weather across the 
island today. Fresh to strong trades expected to become moderate 
to occasionally fresh on Tuesday.


A stationary front extends into the discussion area from 32N42W 
to 27N56W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 150 
nm of the frontal boundary. The front will dissipate later today 
south of 30N. An upper level low is centered near 25N64W. Random 
showers are from 22N-30N between 60W-66W in association with the 
upper level low. Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail elsewhere 
north of the convergence zone and east of the tropical wave 
mentioned above. 

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Page last modified: Monday, 23-Oct-2017 10:30:27 UTC