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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

000
AXNT20 KNHC 081748
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
105 PM EST SAT MAR 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                           
GALE WARNING AREAS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SW N ATLANTIC. COLD 
FRONT IS FROM 31N66W TO 21N77W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 29 E 
OF FRONT TO 63W WITH SW TO W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT AND SEAS 10 TO 15 
FT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO N OF 29N W OF FRONT TO 70W WITH W 
TO NW WINDS 25 TO 35 KT AND SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. PLEASE SEE THE 
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT01 KNHC 
OR THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC 
NEAR 7N12W AND CONTINUES TO 2N15W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 7N12W 
TO 1S20W TO 0N30W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S45W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WELL S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH  
FROM 3S-2N BETWEEN 0W-7W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 4S-4N BETWEEN 16W-24W.  

...DISCUSSION... 

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SW ALABAMA NEAR 31N85W. 10-15 KT 
E TO SE SURFACE WINDS DOMINATE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH 
PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W 
GULF W OF 94W TO INCLUDE THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND MEXICO. A 
SURFACE TROUGH IS NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO FROM 19N96W TO 21N97W TO 
23N100W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW FLOW WITH 
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE N GULF N OF 28N AND STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE S OF 28N. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE 
WESTERN GULF LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY 
EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WITH A LOW PRES LIKELY 
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT BOUNDARY NEAR 25N95W ON MON. EXPECT  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT AND LOW. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                 
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING OVER E CUBA FROM 21N75W 
TO 20N78W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA TO 19N83W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FURTHER 
TO 18N87W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT 16N89W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
PRECIPITATION REMAINS ALONG THE FRONTS. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE 
SE OF THE FRONTS WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N 
COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA... 
PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. MORE 
SHOWERS ARE OVER N COLOMBIA AND E PANAMA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... 
A RIDGE IS PRODUCING S-SW FLOW WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVER N 
COLOMBIA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTS TO 
COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BUT RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FROM 
PUERTO RICO TO JAMAICA...AND OVER N COLOMBIA AND PANAMA.  

HISPANIOLA...                                                   
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA W OF 71W. FAIR WEATHER IS 
OVER E HISPANIOLA AND THE MONA PASSAGE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC PRESENTLY FROM 
30N63W TO 24N70W TO E CUBA AT 21N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM E OF FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW 
CLOUDS ARE W OF FRONT N OF 26N AND W OF 70W. GALE FORCE WINDS 
ARE ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. SEE ABOVE. A 1024 MB 
HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N47W. A WEAK COLD FRONT 
DIPS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N28W TO 28N37W TO 32N50W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1010 MB LOW 
IS CENTERED E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N13W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE LOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A 
LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED E OF TRINIDAD AT 9N56W WITH 
RIDGING OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 50W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC. THE TROUGH AXIS EXTEND FROM THE CANARY 
ISLANDS TO 17N37W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA