819 AXNT20 KNHC 171015 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu Jul 17 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W, from 09N to 22N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Widely scattered showers are seen from 07.5N to 12N between 22W and 28W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 66W-67W, south of 20N, moving westward at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to 21.5N between 64.5W and 72W, and also behind the wave from 12N to 16N between 63W and 67W. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W-80W, south of 20N, moving westward at 20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring across southern portions of the wave near the monsoon trough across western Panamas and in the eastern Pacific along and offshore of Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the border of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau along 16.5W and continues west southwestward to 09N41W. The ITCZ extends from 09N41W to the coast of French Guiana near 05.5N53W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 120 nm of the coast of Africa from 06N to 11N, and from 01.5N to 11N between 30W and 58W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Overnight satellite scatterometer data indicated that the disturbance (AL93) that the National Hurricane Center has been tracking over the northeast and north-central Gulf waters remains quite disorganized, with an elongated trough extending north to south, currently from Mobile Bay to 28N89W. Peak winds detected were 25 kt or less. In addition, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains displaced well west of the trough, with scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection noted north of 27.5N between coastal Mississippi and the Louisiana-Texas border. While some additional development of this system remains possible over the next 12-24 hours, its current structure suggests its chances of developing into a tropical depression before it reaches the Louisiana coast later today are decreasing. The disturbance has a low chance of tropical development over the next 48 hours and also in the next 7 days. Weak high pressure persists over the NW Gulf, and is supporting a weak pressure gradient across the basin. This pattern is supporting moderate to locally fresh southerly winds in the NE and NW Gulf waters. Seas in these waters are 3-4 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and slight to moderate seas are found in the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail. Scattered moderate convection covers much of the southeast Gulf this morning, supported by broad middle to upper level low pressure across the northern Bahamas and south Florida. For the forecast, AL93 is forecast to continue moving westward across northern portions of the Gulf today, reaching SE Louisiana late today. If this system moves far enough offshore, environmental conditions over the Gulf appear generally favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could form over the next day or two before the system moves fully inland by Fri. Regardless of development, heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected over the north- central Gulf through Fri, with erratic gusty winds and rough seas possible near convection. Atlantic high pressure will shift westward into the NE Gulf over the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Tropical Wave section for more information of the tropical waves moving across the basin. Scattered showers and a few mild thunderstorms dot the waters north of 17.5N south of Hispaniola to eastern Jamaica and the Windward Passage, as well as north of 20N across the waters of western Cuba. Drier conditions are prevalent elsewhere, except for scattered showers across the southeast Caribbean trailing the tropical wave there. The tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge extending from near Bermuda to northern Florida and Georgia, and lower pressures in NW Colombia result in strong to near gale-force easterly winds in the south- central Caribbean. This was confirmed by overnight satellite scatterometer data. These winds are supporting rough seas to near 11 ft off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to locally strong easterly breezes and moderate seas are occurring in the north-central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean will expand across most of the central and into the west-central basin, including through the Windward Passage, today through Sat morning, as central Atlantic high pressure along 31N-32N gradually shifts westward to near 75W. Strong to near gale-force winds are expected offshore of northern Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela each night and early morning into Sat. Scattered showers will move westward through the coastal waters of the Greater Antilles through Fri, associated with the passing tropical waves. Winds and seas will diminish slightly Sat into early next week as high pressure weakens north of the area. Elsewhere, pulsing moderate to fresh E to NE winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras each afternoon and evening into this weekend. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas will continue in the eastern basin into next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Tropical Wave section for more information of the tropical waves moving across the basin. An upper level low centered off the NW Bahamas is interacting with low level moisture shearing NW and away from the western Caribbean tropical wave, resulting in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms affecting the NW Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters and into the southeast Florida coastal waters. Similar shower and thunderstorm activity is across the Atlantic waters of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, occurring across northern portions of the eastern Caribbean tropical wave. Farther northeast, another upper level low situated east of Bermuda supports a scattered showers north of 28N and between 53W and 64W. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is dominated by a subtropical ridge extending from a 1024 mb high just east of Bermuda. Satellite scatterometer data depicts fresh to locally strong easterly winds between the SE Bahamas and the offshore waters north of Puerto Rico, including the entrance of the Windward Passage. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found south of 25N and west of 50W. In the north-central Atlantic, a dissipating cold front extends from 31N31W to 21N54W. A few showers are along the boundary. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds and moderate seas are occurring north of this dissipating boundary. In the far NE Atlantic, fresh to strong N winds and seas of 5-8 ft are present north of 29N and east of 15W. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds are expected north of the Greater Antilles to 26N and off the coast of Florida west of 76W today as high pressure in the central Atlantic along 31N-32N builds westward into Florida, in the wake of westward moving low pressure over the NE Gulf of America. Scattered squalls and thunderstorms will move through the northern Bahamas and southeast Florida coastal waters this morning and into the central Florida near and offshore waters this afternoon and evening, associated with a tropical wave passing south of the area. Fresh winds will pulse to strong each evening and night off the coast of northern Hispaniola into early Sat. Winds will diminish off the coast of Florida by early Fri, and north of the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas by Sat morning as high pressure shifts to near 29N75W and weakens. South of 20N, moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds and moderate seas will prevail through this weekend. $$ Stripling
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Page last modified: Thursday, 17-Jul-2025 13:35:25 UTC