| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

---

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

000
AXNT20 KNHC 081101
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
705 AM EST SAT MAR 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                           
GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW N ATLANTIC N OF 27N WITHIN 
180 NM E OF A COLD FRONT THAT AT 0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM 30N67W TO 
25N71W TO 21N76W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST 
OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE 
SUN. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT01 KNHC OR THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC 
NEAR 9N13W AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N19W TO 1N25W. THE ITCZ BEGINS 
NEAR 1N26W AND CONTINUES TO 0N38W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 
0S49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4S-6N 
BETWEEN 12W-24W.

...DISCUSSION... 

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
WESTERLY-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE 
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING 
ADVECTION OF MODERATE MOISTURE FROM THE E PAC N OF 27N AND DRY 
AIR SUBSIDENCE ELSEWHERE. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB 
HIGH OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 29N86W DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS AND 
PROVIDES NORTHEASTERLY-EASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT E OF 90W AND 
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-20 KT ELSEWHERE. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS 
ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER COLD FRONT REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN 
BASIN WHILE BANKING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW 
SUPPORTS CLOUDINESS W OF 95W. OTHERWISE...RETURN FLOW WILL 
DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS DURING SAT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO 
MOVE INTO THE W GULF EARLY SUN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS WAKE. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                 
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE N WESTERN ATLC WITH A 
BASE JUST N OF HISPANIOLA SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT WHICH TRANSITION 
TO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT OVER EASTERN CUBA TO 19N83W TO 
19N83W TO 15N87W. THE TROUGHING ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS A PRE-
FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 26N67W TO 19N75W. 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING DRY 
AIR SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MOSTLY THE ENTIRE BASIN. LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISSIPATING FRONT AND THE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CLOUDINESS OVER THE WINDWARD 
PASSAGE...HAITI AND WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHES 
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENTERING THE EASTERN BASIN WHICH ARE 
ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF A LINE FROM 18N67W TO 12N61W. 
TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE THE BASIN E OF 80W WITH WINDS UP TO 20 
KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. OVER THE NW BASIN...NELY WINDS UP 
TO 10 KT DOMINATE. OTHERWISE...THE PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING BUT REMNANT MOISTURE 
WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT 
WATERS THROUGH SUN MORNING.

HISPANIOLA...                                                    
DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT CONTINUES TO HINDER DEEP 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS 
EASTERN CUBA AND A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ENHANCING 
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...HAITI AND WESTERN 
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER 
THIS MORNING...HOWEVER LINGERING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT 
WATERS THROUGH SUN MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE N WESTERN ATLC WITH A 
BASE JUST N OF HISPANIOLA SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS 
FROM 30N67W TO 25N72W TO NORTH-EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N76W WHERE IT 
TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE NW 
CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGHING ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 26N67W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 19N74W. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 25N 
BETWEEN 64W-69W. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
FRONT. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION FOR DETAILS. FARTHER 
EAST...DEEP LAYER TROUGHING SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE 
N CENTRAL ATLC WATERS...WHICH ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION AS A 
COLD FRONT FROM 30N38W TO 29N44W TO 30N50W. OTHERWISE...A 
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 
14N ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 26N50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR