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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

000
AXNT20 KNHC 240547
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 8N52W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA 
ALONG 5N53W TO 1N52W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN 
A LOW AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER 
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 EITHER 
SIDE OF THE WAVE S OF 8N TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 13N16W CONTINUING TO 9N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES ALONG 5N28W 6N43W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR EQ50W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 
FROM 6N27W TO 5N32W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 4N34W 6N40W TO 10N48W 
WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION DOTTING THE AREA FROM 1N-5N 
BETWEEN 29W-50W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS S FROM GEORGIA INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE 
E GULF E 85W. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE 
GULF. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE 
EXTENDING FROM 22N90W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N92W 
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N E 
OF THE TROUGH TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A WEAK 
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE N GULF WITH A 
1018 MB HIGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF LOUISIANA. THIS IS 
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. 
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NE GULF FRI AND MOVE E OF THE 
BASIN SAT. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILD SAT THROUGH TUE. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                               
NEAR ZONAL NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF 
DEEP MOISTURE MAXIMUM COVERS THE SW CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON THE 
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W 
TO NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER HAITI 
HAVE MOVED INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE 
COASTS OF THE S HAITIAN PENINSULA. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE 
BRINGING IN LOW LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 13N E OF 70W. W ATLC 
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE ACROSS 
MOST OF REGION THROUGH TUE. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE 
CARIBBEAN SAT. 

HISPANIOLA...                                                  
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE S 
PENINSULA OF HAITI MOVING INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES SOME LINGERING MOISTURE 
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ISLAND SO SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS 
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE 
ISLAND. WEATHER SERVICE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IS FORECASTING 
LESS RAINFALL FOR FRIDAY. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER GEORGIA INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA OVER THE N BAHAMAS TO NEAR 25N77W 
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N 
BETWEEN 72W-76W. A SEABREEZE INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 
24/0300 UTC WAS INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH 
GENERATED SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE 
MOVED INTO THE FAR W ATLC N OF 26N BETWEEN 79W-80W INCLUDING 
PORTIONS OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W INTO THE 
CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 33N56W. A BROAD 
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC SUPPORTING STATIONARY FRONT THAT 
ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N38W ALONG 27N38W TO 24N43W. A 
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TRAILS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM 32N42W 
27N48W TO 30N53W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E 
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE AZORES. COLD FRONT 
WILL ENTER NW WATERS FRI AND MOVE E THROUGH SUN THEN WEAKEN INTO 
OPEN TROUGH NEAR 65W ON SUN. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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PAW