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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

000
AXNT20 KNHC 311838
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
105 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER 
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC N OF 30N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W. SEAS WILL 
BUILD TO 12 TO 20 FT WITH NW SWELL. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE 
INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY ALONG 
THE COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA N OF 30N W OF 77W. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 
10 TO 13 FT. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION.

CARIBBEAN...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT 
ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH COLOMBIA FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W 
AND 77W. WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW GALE-FORCE BY 1200 UTC 
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE BACK TO GALE-FORCE SUNDAY NIGHT. 
WINDS WILL AGAIN DECREASE BELOW GALE-FORCE BY 1200 UTC MONDAY. 
SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 7N10W TO 3N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 
1N30W TO 0N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S47W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 8W-10W...AND  
FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 22W-26W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W TO THE 
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 24N90W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO NEAR 
CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AT 28N97W. 15-20 KT EASTERLY WINDS ARE N OF 
FRONT. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE FRONT IS MOSTLY VOID OF 
PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER 
THE NW GULF N OF 24N W OF 90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD 
RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 24N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE S 
GULF. EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE NE TO N FLORIDA OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT ON SUN NIGHT FOR THE A NEW COLD FRONT 
TO EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WITH 
CONVECTION. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST 
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG 
THE N COAST OF HONDURAS...AND ALONG THE COAST OF NE HISPANIOLA. 
MORE SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON RADAR N OF PUERTO RICO. MOSTLY FAIR 
WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING WITH WSW FLOW IS OVER THE AREA WITH VERY 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO 
BE ALONG THE COASTS OF HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND E CUBA. ALSO 
EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS TO PULSE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. 
SEE ABOVE.

HISPANIOLA... 

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE NE COAST OF HISPANIOLA. BROKEN 
TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND.  
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER 
THE ISLAND WITH THE TRADEWINDS. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL 
HOWEVER SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N61W TO 28N66W TO THE 
N BAHAMAS AT 25N75W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W MOVING 
E. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT E OF THE 
BAHAMAS. A GALE IS FORECAST FOR AN AREA OVER THE W ATLANTIC 
TONIGHT. SEE ABOVE. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC FROM 32N52W TO 24N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT N OF 25N. A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED 
NEAR THE AZORES AT 40N32W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 55W N OF 24N SUPPORTING THE 
FRONTS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N34W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 32W-34W. 
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MERGE WITH 
THE STATIONARY FRONT WITH SHOWERS OR CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT  
GALE-FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP MONDAY ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH 
FLORIDA. SEE ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA