000
AXNT20 KNHC 032359
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Jul 04 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Near the Southeastern U.S.:
Disorganized scattered to numerous moderate convection across the
Florida Peninsula reaching eastward to the adjacent waters of 
the southwestern Atlantic Ocean are associated with a weak 
surface trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are 
forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical
or subtropical depression could form in this region over the 
weekend while the system drifts northward or northeastward. 
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across 
portions of west-central and southwestern Florida through early 
Sat, and across coastal sections of the Carolinas beginning 
later on Sat. This area of disorganized convection has a medium 
chance of tropical cyclone development during the next 48 hours. 
Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
wwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern tropical wave has its axis along 21W from 10N to
21N. A 1009 mb low is along the wave near 18N. Scattered 
moderate convection is seen near the southern part of the wave 
from 08N to between 18W and 23W.

An eastern tropical wave has its along 32W from 08N to 19N. It 
is moving westward around 15 kt. This wave is surrounded by a 
very stable and dry environment. Only isolated showers are
near its southern part.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 59W south of
18N to inland eastern French Guiana. It is moving westward at 
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
inland from 05N to 07N between the wave and 61W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 78W south 
of 20N, moving westward near 15 kt. No significant convection is
noted with this tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 20N16W and continues west-southwestward to a 
1009 mb low near 18N21W, and south-southwestward to 10N23W, to 
09N27W and westward to 09N37W, where it transitions to the ITCZ
to 11N47W and to 11N57W. Aside from convection associated to 
the tropical waves, no other convection is presently occurring.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A trough is analyzed from southeastern Georgia southwestward to
28N84W and to near 26N86W. A weak 1017 mb high is over the NW
Gulf near 28N93W. Another trough extends from near 24N93W to 
21N96W. No significant convection is noted with this feature. 
Isolated showers and isolated thunderstorms are present north of 
26N, and also south of 26N east of 87W, including the Straits of 
Florida. Gentle to moderate winds along with seas of 1 to 3 ft
are across the Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned trough will remain 
across the far NE Gulf through the weekend. Scattered showers 
and thunderstorms will develop along this trough over the waters 
near Florida. Weak high pressure will then continue over the 
area into early next week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean. Please see the 
Tropical Wave section for more details. 

The pressure gradient resulting from the combination of central 
Atlantic high pressure and relatively low pressure in northern
Colombia is leading to fresh to strong trades over the southern
section of the basin, generally from 11N to 15N between 64W and
78W. Seas are in the range of 6 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, trades are 
in the gentle to moderate speeds along with seas of 3 to 5 ft. 
satellite imagery shows scattered moderate convection confined 
to the extreme southwestern section of the basin south of 12N 
and west of 81W to inland Costa Rica and northern Panama. This 
activity is being enhanced by the eastern extension of the 
East Pacific monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high 
pressure and the relatively lower pressure in northwest Colombia
and in the southwestern Caribbean will support pulsing fresh to 
strong trades and rough seas across the south-central basin 
through the weekend. 
 
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1025 mb high pressure center is located at 31N51W. A trough 
extends from near 31N38W to 29N43W and to near 29N52W. Another 
trough is analyzed from near 24N61W to just northeast of Puerto 
Rico. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen from 21N to 
27N between 56W and 64W. The present pressure gradient is 
allowing for gentle to fresh trades across the tropical Atlantic 
waters, with the exception of fresh to strong northeast winds 
between the Canary Islands and along coastal Western Sahara. 
Seas are 7 to 9 ft north of 20N east of 30W due to a long-period 
northeast swell. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms across the Florida Peninsula reaching eastward to 
the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean are 
associated with a weak surface trough of low pressure. 
Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive 
for development, and a tropical or subtropical depression could 
form in this region over the weekend while the system drifts 
northward or northeastward. 

$$
Aguirre