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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 252333
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
805 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 10N42W TO 
00N42W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI 
TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF MOISTURE AT MIDDLE 
TO LOWER LEVELS E OF THE AXIS. A DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTS 
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
WAVE FROM 00N-06N BETWEEN 37W-47W.  

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 05N15W. FROM THAT POINT THE ITCZ BEGINS 
AND EXTENDS TO 06N38W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF BOTH AXES. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE HIGH PREVAILS OVER THE NW ATLANTIC EXTENDING ITS AXIS 
SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA REACHING THE EASTERN GULF TO 
90W. A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE SE GULF ALONG 
83W GENERATING A DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF ITS AXIS WHICH IN TURN IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND WATERS E 
OF 84W. LIGHT TO GENTLE SE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN. 
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE SMALL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED TO BE OVER THE 
SW GULF ALSO REACHES THE NW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION 
ACROSS CUBA...JAMAICA AND THEIR ADJACENT WATERS N OF 18N AND W 
OF 75W. A BROAD SURFACE HIGH THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE NW 
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND S REACHING THE CARIBBEAN. WITH 
THIS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE 
WINDS MAINLY S OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-82W. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NE 
FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 
12N BETWEEN 75W-84W. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME OVER THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SURFACE HIGH THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC EXTENDS S 
REACHING THE ISLAND AND THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. A FEW SHOWERS ARE 
OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS HAITI WHICH WILL DISSIPATE 
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ONCE 
AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD SURFACE HIGH CENTERED N OF OUR AREA PREVAILS ACROSS THE 
NW ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. TO THE E...A PAIR OF 
SURFACE TROUGHS WERE ANALYZED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE 
FIRST EXTENDS FROM 27N59W TO 26N62W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE SECOND ONE IS FROM 30N52W TO 
22N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS N OF 26N BETWEEN 
49W-59W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. EXPECT FOR THE 
SURFACE TROUGHS TO LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH 
CONVECTION. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA

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Page last modified: Monday, 25-May-2015 23:34:15 UTC