Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 161158

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
657 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1115 UTC.


...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A strong cold front entering now the NW Gulf will reach from the 
Florida Panhandle to Tampico Mexico this evening, then move SE of
the area Wed. Strong northerly winds are noted behind the front 
along the coast of Texas. Northerly winds to gale force are 
possible near Tampico and Veracruz tonight and Wed, and frequent 
gusts to gale force are expected over the NW waters today. In 
fact, a buoy located near 20N96W is already reporting gusty winds
to gale force. Strong high pressure will follow the front.

Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO 
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, and the latest NHC Offshore 
Waters Forecast, MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, for more details.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 06N10W 
to 03N15W. The ITCZ extends from 03N15W to 01N44W. Scattered 
moderate convection from the Equator to 04N between 31W and 44W.
Similar convection is from 02N-05N between 49W and 51W.



A ridge extends across the region, producing mainly gentle to 
moderate NE-E winds, except fresh NE winds in the SE Gulf. 
Stratocumulus clouds are noted across much of the Gulf.  
Persistent low clouds are banked up against the Sierra Madre
Mountains. A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf this 
afternoon, followed by strong high pressure. Please see Special 
Features section for more details.


A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to the west of  
Jamaica to the SW Caribbean 13N82W. Scattered showers are noted 
in association with the frontal boundary S of 16N. Stratocumulus 
clouds are observed behind the front over the NW Caribbean.
Patches of low level moisture with isolated showers are elsewhere
E of the front. Scatterometer data shows fresh to strong northerly
winds behind the front, and moderate trade winds east of the 
frontal boundary. Moistures associated with the remnants of the 
front will drift westward through Wed, increasing the likelihood 
of showers over Central America and the NW Caribbean. Otherwise, 
strong winds will pulse near the NW Colombia coast each night 
through Fri night. Large NE swell will maintain seas above 8 ft in
the tropical Atlc waters today. 


Relatively dry weather with partly cloudy skies and isolated 
showers will prevail for the next couple of days. A surface 
trough passing N of Puerto Rico will produce little convection.


A cold front extends from 31N66W to 28N70W where it becomes stationary
then continues across the Bahamas to eastern Cuba. Strong N to NE
winds W of the front will gradually diminish today as the front 
weakens. A strong cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast on 
Wed, then weaken as it reaches from near 27N65W to the SE Bahamas 
by Thu evening, then become a westward moving trough over the far 
SE waters Fri. Strong high pres behind the front will induce 
strong northerly winds and building seas NE of the Bahamas on 

High pressure of 1040 mb located just W of the Azores near 40N33W
dominates the remainder of the ocean to Africa. Scatterometer data
indicates a large area of fresh to strong trades north of 15N 
between 20W-40W. A surface trough associated with an upper-level 
low extends along 64W/65W N of 25N. Another surface trough is SE 
of an upper- level low centered near 28N45W. Scattered moderate 
and isolated strong convection associated with this system is 
found N of 29N between 40W-46W.

For additional information please visit 


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 16-Jan-2018 11:58:13 UTC