Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 271806

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
206 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1745 UTC.



Gale force winds are in the northern semicircle of a broad area of
low pressure anchored by a 1007 mb low centered near 23N69W. Seas
in this region range from 11 to 17 ft. Gale conditions are
forecast to continue the next two days shifting to the west 
semicircle as the low moves northeast Wednesday. Please read the 
latest High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers 
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia Africa near
06N11W SW to 03N17W. The ITCZ then continues from there to 01N20W
to 01N38W to the coast of northern Brazil near 01N50W. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 150 nm north of
the ITCZ. Scattered moderate convection is south of the ITCZ to
04S west of 20W.



In general, low pressure dominates over the western half of the
basin while ridging extends from the SW Atlc across Florida into
the eastern Gulf. This synoptic pattern provides gentle to
moderate return flow. Even though there is a diffluent wind
pattern mostly in the middle levels, both CIRA LPW imagery at the
lower levels and water vapor imagery show very dry conditions
across the entire basin, which is favoring fair weather. No major
changes are expected within the next two days. 


A relaxed pressure gradient in the Caribbean supports gentle to
moderate trades basin-wide. CIRA LPW and water vapor imagery show
very dry conditions in the low and middle levels across the
central and western Sea, which is favoring fair weather
conditions. However, over the eastern basin there is abundant
moisture being advected from the tropical Atlantic. This moisture
along with a surface trough just north of Puerto Rico supports
showers mainly across the northern and northeastern portions of
the Island. No major changes are expected within the next two 


Low and upper level dry air continue to support fair weather
across the Island. However, the proximity of a broad area of low
pressure to the north of the Island in the SW N Atlc may lead to
the development of shallow convection late this afternoon and in
the evening. The low will move NE within the next 24 hours, which
will re-establish fair weather conditions.


The main concern in the Atlantic is an area of broad surface low
pressure NE of the Bahamas with gale force conditions. This low is
being supported by a middle level cyclone and associated trough
extending south across the central Caribbean. The low is centered
near 23N69W from which a warm front extends along 28N67W to 27N60W
to 25N54W. Moisture inflow from the tropical Atlc by SE flow along
with diffluence aloft support scattered moderate convection and
isolated tstms N of 25N between 58W and 68W. For further details
see the special features section.

For additional information please visit 


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Page last modified: Monday, 27-Mar-2017 18:06:19 UTC