| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 211025
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
805 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 04N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES ALONG 00N26W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 38W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 18W-
38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE EPAC EXTENDS E 
REACHING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH 
COVERS THE E CONUS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT PREVAILS 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. IT BEGINS AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 
25N97W TO 26N91W THEN IT TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD FRONT THROUGH 
30N85W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
FRONTS MAINLY N OF 25N. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN GULF W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 24N89W TO 20N90W. 
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS FEATURE. LIGHT TO 
GENTLE NE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN W OF 90W WHILE A GENTLE 
NW FLOW IS OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA AND CURRENT 
OBSERVATIONS E OF 90W AND N OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE 
NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE 
NW GULF. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SE ENHANCING 
CONVECTION ACROSS THE W GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A WEAK 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EPAC INTO THE GULF 
ALSO REACHES THE W CARIBBEAN. TO THE E OF THIS...AN UPPER-LEVEL 
TROUGH EXTENDS ITS AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 12N83W 
TO 18N71W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN IN THE AREA DOMINATED BY 
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. DESPITE THIS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS 
ALSO PRESENT ACROSS THE BASIN GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION. 
LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT N OF 
COLOMBIA FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 69W-76W WHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE 
FLOW IS OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL 
AREA N OF HONDURAS MAINLY S OF 17N WHERE A MODERATE FLOW IS 
DEPICTED. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24-48 
HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL 
MOISTURE COUPLED WITH THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO 
GENERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND MAINLY IN THE 
AFTERNOON OVER THE NEXT IN 24 HOURS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 
30N77W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 28N78W. A 
SQUALL LINE IS E OF THE LOW AND TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N73W TO 
27N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 26N BETWEEN 68W-
76W. A FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC...BEGINNING AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 28N57W TO 28N45W 
THEN TRANSITIONING INTO A COLD FRONT TO 31N39W. ISOLATED 
CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE COLD FRONT MAINLY N OF 30N. A PAIR 
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS LOCATED NEAR 24N50W AND 38N25W 
EXTEND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER. 
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY 
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO REACH THE W ATLANTIC WITH 
CONVECTION. THE SQUALL LINE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLANTIC 
WILL DISSIPATE. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
WILL WEAKEN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 

ERA

Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2015 10:25:46 UTC