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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 271100
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
705 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 27N BETWEEN 67W AND 79W W OF A 
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N70W TO 27N73W TO 
22N77W. THIS GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS 
THE FRONT MOVES E WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED E OF THE PREVIOUS FRONT. SEE THE HIGH 
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR 
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N13W TO 03N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES ALONG 01N33W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02S44W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE 01S-04N BETWEEN 20W-33W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N96W. SW UPPER LEVEL 
FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN...BRINGING MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC 
TO THE AREA. DESPITE THIS...THE GULF REMAINS CONVECTION FREE AS 
THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED 
THROUGH ON MONDAY PREVAILS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE 
FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM 28N83W TO THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N77W. 
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A GENTLE TO 
MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF EXCEPT W OF 94W WHERE A 
LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SE 
CONUS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE E GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE 
WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE W IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES 
E. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
EXTENDING FROM 16N80W TO THE SW ATLANTIC NEAR 23N72W. ISOLATED 
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM S OF THE BOUNDARY. A SHEAR 
LINE EXTENDS S OF THIS TROUGH FROM 12N83W TO 16N80W. TO THE 
W...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC ACROSS CUBA AND 
THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 20N87W TO 22N80W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION 
IS OBSERVED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE 
EXTENDS FROM SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES 
PREVAIL ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 77W WITH 
ISOLATED TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS. TO THE W OF 77W...A 
MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT 
FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH AND SHEAR LINE TO DISSIPATE AND THE COLD 
FRONT WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER FRONT AS IT MOVES E ACROSS THE 
CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION. 

...HISPANIOLA... 

ISOLATED TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND. 
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH 
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS W CUBA. THIS 
FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING 
CONVECTION. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W 
ATLANTIC FROM 29N81W TO 29N79W. A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO OVER THE W ATLANTIC 
SUPPORTING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE 
SOUTHERN GULF INTO THE W ATLANTIC FROM 23N78W TO 31N68W. TO THE 
E...ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 23N72W TO 31N64W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 24N BETWEEN 57W-68W. GALE 
FORCE WINDS ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA NEAR THESE FRONTS 
AND A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT. FOR MORE INFORMATION 
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS FROM 24N48W TO 27N47W. A STATIONARY 1041 MB SURFACE 
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 39N25W AND EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF 
THE E AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE TROUGHS TO DISSIPATE. THE 
FRONTS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC WILL MERGE AND THE NEW BOUNDARY 
WILL CONTINUE MOVING E ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 27-Jan-2015 11:00:26 UTC