Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 120520

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1220 AM EST Tue Dec 12 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0415 UTC.

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to 
09N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 
09N17W to 03N30W to 01N49W. Isolated moderate convection is from 
02N-06N between 11W-15W...and from 05N-07N between 20W-26W.


A surface ridge extends across the entire basin anchored by a 
1025 mb high centered offshore of southern Texas near 27N96W. 
Light to moderate anticyclonic winds are noted across the basin
this evening with slightly stronger moderate to occasional fresh 
W winds expected to materialize N of 27N by morning. The stronger
winds will be associated with a weak frontal trough emerging off 
the SE CONUS coast Tuesday introducing a brief period of fresh 
W-NW winds to the northern waters shifting eastward into the
eastern waters Tuesday afternoon into the evening. The troughing 
will be quick to clear east of the basin by Wednesday with 
moderate northerly winds prevailing through Thursday.

The primary feature across the basin is the stationary front 
extending from the Windward Passage SW to Jamaica then S to the 
coast of western Panama near 09N81W. Widely scattered showers and
isolated tstms are occurring generally S of 19N between 75W- 
83W. Much of this convection is supported aloft by a divergent 
upper level pattern on the western periphery of an upper level 
anticyclone anchored over northern Colombia near 08N75W. East of 
the anticyclonic circulation...dry NW flow prevails providing 
overall stability to the central and eastern Caribbean this 
evening. A few isolated showers are noted on satellite imagery E 
of 71W...but remain shallow and embedded within gentle to 
moderate trades. The front is forecast to remain stationary across
the western Caribbean and gradually weaken through Thursday.

Fair weather conditions prevail across the island this evening 
while a stationary front remains analyzed across the Windward 
Passage region to the NW. Isolated showers are possible within 60
nm either side of the front which is expected to remain 
stationary and begin weakening through Thursday.

Water vapor imagery indicates broad middle to upper level
troughing over the eastern CONUS and western North Atlc waters 
supporting a stationary front extending from 32N59W to the Turks
and Caicos near 22N72W to the Windward Passage and into the SW 
Caribbean Sea. Isolated showers are occurring within 120 nm either
side of the front. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc
waters are under the influence of a surface ridge anchored over 
the Gulf of Mexico and portions of eastern Mexico. Farther east...
water vapor imagery indicates a middle to upper level low centered
near 25N51W. The associated surface trough extends from 14N57W to
29N54W with scattered showers and tstms occurring E of the
troughing from 14N-30N between 41W-51W.

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 12-Dec-2017 05:20:45 UTC