Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 231712

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
112 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1600 UTC.


A cold front across the Gulf of Mexico from the Florida Panhandle
to Vera Cruz Mexico will sweep across the remainder of the Gulf 
through early Tuesday with gale force northerly winds expected to
develop S of 21N W of 95W early this afternoon as high pressure 
builds behind the front. Please see the latest NWS High Seas 
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more 


A tropical wave extends from 18N55W to 05N56W, moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 47W and 62W, and 
is accompanied by an increase in low to mid level moisture. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 17N between 51W and 

A tropical wave extends from the Bay of Campeche near 21N91W to SE
mexico, to the E Pacific. This wave is associated with a sharp 
700 mb trough. However, no significant convection is noted with 
this wave at this time. 


The Monsoon Trough crosses the W Africa coast near 14N16W and
extends to 09N20W, where the Intertropical Convergence Zone axis
begins and extends to 06N35W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 05N to 10N between 27W and 46W. 



A cold front extends from 30N86W to 25N90W to 20N96W to 23N98W. A
1022 mb high centered over Texas is building southeast behind the
front supporting fresh to strong northerly winds just west of the
front. As the front passes south of Vera Cruz early this
afternoon, the pressure gradient between the high and the lower
pressure from the front will produce gale force winds offshore of
Vera Cruz this afternoon through tonight. Please refer to the
special features section for more details. A pre-frontal trough
over the southeastern Gulf has dissipated. However, pre-frontal
forcing east of the cold front is supporting scattered
thunderstorms within 150 nm east of the cold front. Fresh to 
strong southerly flow is occurring to the east of the front as
well. Over the next 24 hours the front will sweep across the 
remainder of the Gulf of Mexico with strong northerly winds 
dominating much of the Gulf basin through Wednesday. 


The combination of upper level diffluence and a developing trough
just offshore Honduras is supporting numerous moderate and
isolated strong convection within 150 nm of a line from 12N81W to
19N87W. Dry air and subsidence inhibits convection over the 
central and eastern Caribbean. High pressure north of the region 
supports fresh to strong trades across much of the central 
Caribbean, with mainly moderate trades elsewhere over the 
Caribbean basin. Over the next 24 hours convection will continue 
over the western Caribbean. Showers and thunderstorms will 
increase over the eastern Caribbean through Wednesday as a 
tropical wave approaches the area. 


Dry air and NW flow aloft will support fair weather across the 
island today. An upper low NE of the area may bring isolated
showers and thunderstorms to the island on Tuesday. 


A cold front enters the area of discussion near 31N42W and extends
to 28N54W, where it transitions to a dissipating stationary front
to 27N61W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within
120 nm of either side of the front. A surface trough extends from
31N66W to 25N66W. This trough is void of deep convection. Another
surface trough extends from 26N57W to 20N59W and is a surface
reflection of an upper low centered near 23N63W. This system is
generating scattered showers and thunderstorms from 20N to 26N
between 52W and 66W. The remainder of the Atlantic discussion area
is dominated by high pressure centered north of the region. 

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Page last modified: Monday, 23-Oct-2017 17:12:44 UTC