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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 230005
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...      

A 1007 MB LOW IS LOCATED 130 NM MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN COAST 
OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N68W...MOVING WNW AT 15-20 KT. A TROPICAL 
WAVE EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 26N68W. A BAND OF NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE LOW 
CENTER FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 68W-72W. SAN JUAN RADAR IS SHOWING A 
LARGE AREA OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXTENDING OVER 100 MILES SOUTH 
OF PUERTO RICO WITH OTHER CLUSTERS OF HEAVY RAINFALL BETWEEN 
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. OTHER BANDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INDICATED ON RADAR TO THE SOUTH 
AND EAST OF PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
LOCATED ON THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LOW FROM 15-23N 
BETWEEN 68W-64W. THIS LOW HAS BEEN BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED 
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING 
THROUGHOUT TODAY. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS 
PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE OPEN WATERS 
BETWEEN THESE ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS AS IT MOVES ALONG OR NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. 
INTERESTS DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE 
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 10N32W TO 27N32W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME AS DRY 
SAHARAN AIR AND DUST ARE IN ITS ENVIRONMENT. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 26N68W TO THE CENTER OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
NEAR 19N68W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W 
AND CONTINUES ALONG 10N27W TO 9N33W TO 08N39W. AN ITCZ EXTENDS 
FROM 08N39W TO 08N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-
14N E OF 24W AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 28W-55W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               

A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED ON THE N GULF NEAR 
29N91W. SURFACE OBS AND SCATTEREOMETER WINDS SHOW ANTICYCLONIC 
WINDS MAINLY BETWEEN 5-10 KT WITH 15 KT EVIDENT ACROSS THE 
SOUTHWESTERN GULF. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE W 
CENTRAL GULF. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. EXPECT SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN 
HALF OF THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS NE OF 
HISPANIOLA...WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19N68W. LOW 
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AND DEEP LAYER 
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE SUPPORTING THE 
CONVECTION DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. 

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN. THIS LOW ACCOMPANIED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS 
THE NW BASIN IS ENHANCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WESTERN 
CUBA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS 
CONVECTION FREE IN THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR. TRADE WINDS OF 10-15 
KT ARE MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE BASIN WITH WINDS UP 
TO 20 KT NEAR THE NORTH OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. WINDS EAST OF 
67W BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY OF 15-25 KT IN THE LOW LEVEL 
FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES 
SECTION. SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED 
WITH THIS LOW WILL AFFECT THE GREATER ANTILLES AND OFFSHORE 
WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND CUBA OVER THE WEEKEND.  

...HISPANIOLA...                                         

MOISTURE AND CONVECTION IS INCREASING AS THE LOW PRESSURE 
DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION APPROACHES THE ISLAND. 
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLE LOCALIZED 
FLOODING AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...PEAKING 
BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTH OF THE THE 
ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                              

A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED JUST E OF NE FLORIDA 
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 
COVERING THE NW PORTION TO THE NW OF A LINE FROM 32N70W TO 
26N75W TO WESTERN CUBA. AN INVERTED MID LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED TO 
THE SE OF THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALONG A POSITION FROM 27N73W TO 
25N75W TO 22N79W. AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES NEWD FROM 27N73W TO 
NE OF THE AREA AT 32N59W. MOIST LOW LEVEL NE FLOW UNDER THE 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NW PORTION IS BRINGING WIDELY 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF 
THE BAHAMAS AND WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA KEYS 
INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. STRONG CONVECTION AND GUSTY 
WINDS ARE LOCATED NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND GREATER 
ANTILLES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE ABOVE.

ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED TO THE E OF 
SPECIAL FEATURES LOW NEAR 22N63W. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC ASSOCIATED 
WITH THIS FEATURE COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN INVERTED TROUGH AND 
56W. E OF THIS FEATURE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY AND STABLE 
UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE. AT THE SURFACE...RATHER WEAK SURFACE 
RIDGING PREVAILS. ELSEWHERE E OF THE STRONG CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE 
THROUGHOUT E OF THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
LATTO/AGUIRRE


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Page last modified: Saturday, 23-Aug-2014 00:05:20 UTC