Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 061754

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1254 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.



Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website:
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are being forecast for the
area that is called IRVING. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that
follow the forecast that is valid until 07/1200 UTC, consists
of: the threat of cyclonic gale to storm in IRVING.


The ITCZ extends from Sierra Leone, Africa near 07N12W to 05N20W
to 04N36W to 06N46W. Scattered heavy showers are from 01N-09N
between 15W and 45W. West of the ITCZ, a surface trough extends
from 14N49W to 05N50W with scattered heavy showers within 360 nm
east of its axis.



A middle level low over N Minnesota extends a trough SE to the NE
Gulf coastline, which is supporting a cold front from the Florida
Panhandle near 30N84W to 26N87W to 23N90W where it stalls SW to
the Bay of Campeche near 18N95W. Ahead of the front, a squall line
with heavy showers and tstms within 30 nm of its axis extends
from Jacksonville SW to 29N82W to 25N86W. Low level moisture
convergence supports isolated showers within 60 nm either side of
the frontal boundary. West of the front, a 1015 mb high is
centered near 24N95W, which along with strong dry air subsidence
from aloft support stable and fair weather conditions. The high
also provides light variable flow across most of the W basin. In
the NE Gulf, fresh to strong W winds are N of 28N W of the cold
front to 91W with seas to 8 ft. Otherwise, moderate to fresh SW
flow dominate E of the front. The cold front will continue to
move across the Gulf today and will stall Wednesday morning when
fresh to strong flow will diminish. A new cold front will move
into the northwest Gulf Wednesday night followed by strong to gale
force winds through the end of the week.


A broad upper level anticyclone is anchored W of Jamaica near
18N81W along with strong dry air subsidence, which leaves the NW
basin with isolated passing showers being supported by middle
level diffluence and shallow moisture as indicated by CIRA LPW
imagery. In the SW Caribbean, the monsoon trough extends across
Costa Rica and Panama to a 1010 mb low off the coast of Colombia
near 10N76W. Scattered showers associated with these features is S
of 11N. Lingering moisture associated with the passage of a
frontal boundary N of the Greater Antilles support scattered to
isolated showers across Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and Virgin
Islands. An upper level low in the SE basin and shallow moisture
support similar shower activity across the Windward Islands and
adjacent waters. High pressure in the SW Atlc tightens the
gradient in the central basin to support fresh to strong NE to E
winds from 11N to 14N between 70W and 76W, including the Gulf of
Venezuela. These winds will continue in the south-central
Caribbean the next two days along with the low center off


Lingering moisture associated with the passage of a frontal
boundary N of the Island support scattered to isolated showers on
both Haiti and Dominican Republic. This shower activity is
forecast to cease tonight.


Heavy showers and tstms are off the coast of NE Florida associated
with a squall line ahead of a frontal boundary in the Gulf of
Mexico. A surface high pressure anchored by a 1021 mb high near
26N65W covers the SW N Atlc waters and provide fair and stable
conditions. Ahead of the ridge, a cold front extends from 31N28W
to 24N40W where it stalls and weaken along 22N50W to 18N60W.
Scattered heavy showers are N of 24N between 24W and 32W. Surface
ridging continue to cover the remainder NE Atlc waters being
anchored by a 1031 mb high over Spain. The central Atlantic cold
front will weaken and dissipate Thursday. A new cold front will
move into the west Atlantic tonight, which will stall and weaken
in the SW basin by Thursday morning ahead of another cold front
to move off the SE CONUS. 

For additional information please visit


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 06-Dec-2016 17:54:31 UTC