725 
AXNT20 KNHC 210608
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue May 21 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall in the Caribbean: A deep layer trough will 
dig southward across the western Caribbean Sea Mon night through 
Fri. With increasing moisture being forecast east of this trough, 
there is a chance for heavy rain developing from near Jamaica 
eastward across Hispaniola to near Puerto Rico from Wed through 
Fri. Residents in these locations need to stay alert and refer to 
their local weather offices for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough curves southwestward from the coast of Guinea-
Bissau near Bissau to 05N29W. An ITCZ continues westward from 
05N29W to 04N45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near and
south of the monsoon trough from 01N to 08N between 10W and 28W.
No significant convection is near the ITCZ based on the latest
analysis.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms near the coast of
Panama and northern Colombia.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A modest surface ridge reaches southwestward from the Florida
Panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico. Mainly moderate NE to SE 
winds and seas at 3 to 4 ft are present north of the Yucatan 
Peninsula, at the eastern Bay of Campeche and the northwestern 
Gulf. Gentle ENE to SE winds with 2 to 3 ft seas dominate the rest
of the Gulf.

Latest observations along with earlier VIS satellite imagery
reveal haze and smoke produced by agricultural fires in Mexico 
is causing reduced visibilities, down to 4 to 6 nm across the 
western Gulf.

For the forecast, a frontal trough extends across south Florida 
into the eastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds prevail 
across the Gulf behind the front, with slight seas. High pressure
northeast of the basin will produce moderate to locally fresh E 
to SE winds across most of the Gulf Tue night through the end of 
the week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough runs eastward from near the Cayman Islands to
beyond central Cuba. Aided by moist divergent flow aloft,
scattered showers and thunderstorms are flaring up near Jamaica
and eastern Cuba. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for
additional weather in the basin. Otherwise, a surface ridge
extending southwestward from the central Atlantic to near the 
southeast Bahamas continues a trade-wind pattern across much of 
the basin. Fresh to strong E winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are 
evident at the south- central basin, including the ABC Islands. 
Gentle NE to ESE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas exist at the 
southwestern basin and near the Cayman Islands. Moderate with 
locally fresh E to ESE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail 
elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

Latest observations along with earlier VIS satellite imagery
indicate haze and smoke produced by agricultural fires in Central
America is causing reduced visibilities, down to 4 to 6 nm across 
the western basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the aforementioned
surface ridge and lower pressure over northern South America is 
supporting fresh to strong E winds in the south-central basin. A 
deep layer trough will dig southward across the western basin Mon 
night through Fri, supporting active weather east of 80W Tue 
through Fri. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will develop in the 
central basin Tue and shift eastward through Thu while diminishing
to mostly fresh. Smoke and haze across the western basin should
gradually thin out over the next day or so.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A modest stationary front stretches west-southwestward from south
of Bermuda across 30N68W and a 1009 mb low near 29N78W to just 
off southeastern Florida. A surface trough runs east-northeastward
from central Cuba across the southeast Bahamas to near 25N70W. 
Widely scattered moderate convection is seen up to 80 nm along 
either side of these features. Enhanced by divergent winds aloft, 
convergent moist flow between these features are producing 
scattered showers and strong thunderstorms from 23N to 27N between
the northwest/central Bahamas and 71W. Convergent trade winds are
generating widely scattered moderate convection near the coast of
Suriname and French Guiana. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ 
section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate NE winds are found off northeastern Florida, while
moderate SW winds are seen south of Bermuda near the stationary
front. Seas at both areas range from 4 to 6 ft. Otherwise, a 
surface ridge extending southwestward from the central Atlantic to
near the southeast Bahamas is supporting light to gentle winds 
along with 2 to 4 ft seas north of 20N between 30W and the 
Florida/Georgia coast. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, 
moderate with locally fresh NNE to NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft
exist north 13N between the Africa coast and 30W. For the tropical
Atlantic from 05N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles,
gentle to moderate NE to ESE trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft are
present. Light to gentle with locally moderate monsoonal and
southerly winds and 5 to 8 ft seas in moderate to large southerly
swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, scattered showers and thunderstorms 
prevail across the western Atlantic between the stationary front 
and 70W. The front will move southeastward and stall from near 
31N72W to southeastern Florida late Tue. A trough will develop 
southeast of the weakening front and extend into the central 
Bahamas early on Wed, and drift eastward through Fri night. Fresh 
winds and moderate seas will prevail in the western Atlantic with 
the front/trough through midweek, then light to gentle winds and 
slight seas are expected through Fri. 

$$

Chan