Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 240003

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
703 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2315 UTC.


A 998 mb low is N of the area over the E Atlantic near 35N34W. A 
cold front extends from 31N28W to beyond 36N40W. Gale force winds
are N of 29.5N between 28W-39W. Seas are 10-18 ft. Gale force
winds are to diminish to 30 kt on 24/1200 UTC. See the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC 
for more details.

A 1007 mb low is N of the area over the W Atlantic near 33N62W 
with the associated cold front extending SW to near 27N67W. The 
existing pressure gradient remains strong within the NE and E 
quadrants of the low generating near gale to gale force S-SW winds
N of 30N between 59W-62W. Seas are 9-12 ft. These conditions will
persist for the next six hours. See the latest NWS High Seas 
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more 


The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to 
07N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 07N20W to
07N40W to 08N52W. A surface trough is analyzed W of the ITCZ from
13N54W to 06N58W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is from 04N-10N between 20W-35W. 



As of 2100 UTC, a 1008 mb low is centered N of Tampa Florida near
28N82W. A cold front extends SW from the low to the Yucatan 
Peninsula near 19N91W. A warm front extends NE from the low to
beyond 31N79W. Isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm of
the fronts, to include a large portion of the Florida Peninsula. 
A 1020 mb high is centered over S Texas near 28N99W producing
mostly fair weather over the W Gulf of Mexico W of 90W. In the
upper levels a large trough is over the Gulf of Mexico with axis
extending from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche. 
The trough is supporting the frontal system over the E Gulf. 
Strong subsidence is W of the upper level trough axis, while upper
level moisture is E of the trough. Expect in 24 hours for the 
cold front to extend from S Florida to W Cuba with convection. 


Isolated moderate convection and scattered showers are over the NW
Caribbean and W Cuba due to prefrontal activity from the E Gulf 
of Mexico front. Further S, a surface trough is over the SW
Caribbean from 16N80W to N Colombia near 10N75W. Isolated moderate 
convection is within 180 nm of the trough. In addition, the
eastern extent of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends over
Costa rica and Panama producing scattered moderate convection. In
the upper levels, upper level diffluence is over the NW Caribbean
enhancing convection. A small upper level high is centered over
the E Caribbean near 13N66W with strong subsidence E of 70W.
Expect showers and convection to persist over the Caribbean
between 75W-85W for the next 24 hours. 


Clear skies and fair weather is over the Island. These conditions
will deteriorate Friday as a weak surface trough currently over 
the NE Caribbean moves west across the Island producing isolated 
to scattered showers.


A warm front extends from 31N79W SW to a 1008 mb low N of Tampa
Florida. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the
front. Further E, an W Atlantic low is centered near 33N62W with
associated cold front and Gale. See above. Scattered showers are
within 120 nm E of the front. Over the E Atlantic, a cold front 
slices across northern portions of the discussion area from 31N28W
W-SW to 26N40W to 26N49W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of
the front. A E Atlantic gale is associated with this front. See
above. Lastly, a weak 1014 mb low is centered near 19N45W.
Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the N semicircle.

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Page last modified: Friday, 24-Nov-2017 00:03:44 UTC