Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 181248

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1145 UTC.


...Atlantic Gale Warning...

The low pressure currently located east of the N Carolina's coast
will continue to move eastward into the western Atlantic Ocean 
while deepening. Gale-force winds associated with this low
pressure system have developed north of 30N within 180 nm west of
a cold front that extends from the low to 30N73W SW across the 
northern Bahamas to the Florida Straits and then into the Yucatan 
Peninsula. Winds will diminish below gale force tonight. However,
near gale-force winds will prevail through early Friday morning 
as the front weaken southeast of the Bahamas. Please read the 
latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, and the latest NHC Offshore Waters 
Forecast, MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, for more details.


The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 06N11W and 
continues to 02N16W. The ITCZ begins near 06N16W and continues 
along 0N30W to 02N40W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection 
is observed from 02N to 07N between 07W and 15W and from 0N to 
05N between 28W and 48W.



A surface ridge has established across the Gulf in the wake of 
the cold front that currently extends across the SW N Atlc to 
the Florida Straits to the eastern Yucatan Peninsula. 
Scatterometer data depicts fresh to locally strong northerly 
winds across the basin. Winds will slightly weaken as the 
pressure gradient relaxes across the basin during the next 24 
hours. Fresh to locally strong southerly flow will set-up again 
across the western Gulf and persist early this weekend ahead on 
the next cold front forecast to reach the Texas coast Sunday 


The remnants of a stationary front were analyzed as a surface
trough that extends across the western Caribbean from 19N85W to
12N82W. Abundant cloudiness with embedded showers and 
thunderstorms are noted west of 80W with this trough affecting 
the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. Patches of low-level 
moisture carried by the trade wind flow are seen across the 
remainder of the Caribbean Sea inducing showers. Moderate to 
fresh northeast winds are seen in the lee of Cuba, and within 
about 60 nm of the coast of Nicaragua. Fresh to strong winds are 
near the coast of Colombia. The cold front currently moving 
across the Gulf of Mexico will reach the northwest Caribbean 
this morning, then extend from central Cuba to Honduras by 
tonight. Fresh to strong winds and widespread showers are 
expected behind the front. Strong trade winds will pulse near 
the coast of Colombia coast on Friday night and then expand 
across much of the central Caribbean over the weekend as high 
pressure builds north of the area.


Relatively dry weather with partly cloudy skies and isolated 
showers will prevail for the next day or so over the island due 
to the influence of a ridge. Computer models show an increasing 
of  moisture across Hispaniola toward the end of the work-week 
as a cold front approaches from the west. Fresh northeast winds 
are expected across the Windward Passage today through Saturday 
night as high pressure builds across the western Atlantic in the 
wake of the above mentioned front.


A strong cold front is moving across the west Atlantic from 
31N77W to 28N80W. See the Special Features section for more 
details about this front and the Gale Warning in effect. To the 
east, a forming cold front has developed extending from a 1014 
mb surface low near 34N73W to 24N75W. Scattered showers are 
noted in the vicinity of these features mainly west of 70W. A 
surface trough extends from 30N65W to 25N65W with minimal 
convection at this time. An upper-level low is reflected at the 
surface as a trough that extends from 31N50W to a 1021 mb low 
near 28N47W to 21N43W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
north of 25N between 36W- 46W. The strong high pressure near 
Azores dominates most of the east and central Atlantic, and will 
move little through this weekend.

For additional information please visit 


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Page last modified: Thursday, 18-Jan-2018 12:48:32 UTC