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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 202348
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N53W...IN 
THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 51W-58W. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT 
OF THIS FEATURE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE IT 
WILL BE MOVING WESTWARD-NORTHWESTWARD 10-15 KNOTS...ACROSS THE 
LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PEOPLE WHO LIVE IN THE 
LESSER ANTILLES AND THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN 
SEA SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF THIS FEATURE. THE 
CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 
48 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 22N21W TO 14N23W MOVING W AT 
10 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND SSMI 
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMUM. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. 

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 21N55W TO 10N52W MOVING W AT 
20-25 KT.  THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT. SSMI 
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE TO BE S OF 21N. 
THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW AT 12N53W IS EMBEDDED ON THE BASE OF 
THIS TROPICAL WAVE. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16N16W TO 
13N24W TO 8N30W TO 14N46W TO 1009 MB LOW AT 12N53W TO THE COAST 
OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN 
THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 14W-17W...FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 
33W-38W...FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 44W-49W...AND FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 
58W-62W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               

A QUASI-STATIONARY 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF 
MEXICO NEAR 27N86W. 5-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF 
WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NW GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
HOWEVER OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 84W. AIRMASS SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S LOUISIANA...THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE...S FLORIDA...AND W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN 
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO AT 24N97W. AN 
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N77W. 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE E GULF FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 83W-
88W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST 
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS 
PRESENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AIRMASS SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER E CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA...COSTA 
RICA...S NICARAGUA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 
77W-86W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED 
OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N91W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL 
CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DUE TO AN APPROACHING LOW 
AND TROPICAL WAVE. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.  

...HISPANIOLA...                                         

CURRENTLY...EVENING CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO PEAK 
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. EXPECT SIMILAR CONVECTION THU 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                              

A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N46W 
WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 
77W-80W. ANOTHER 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 
36N24W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC NEAR 29N77W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC NEAR 24N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 
64W-69W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO 
BE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 20-Aug-2014 23:48:20 UTC