000
AXNT20 KNHC 041609
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat May 4 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Senegal near 13N17W and continues southward to 07N22W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N22W to 00N46W. Scattered moderate convection is
found south of 04N between 26W and 44W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough analyzed across the Louisiana nearshore waters 
is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. 
Otherwise, broad subtropical ridging dominates the remainder of 
the basin. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and slight to moderate 
seas are noted south of 25N and west of 90W. Light to gentle 
easterly winds and slight seas prevail across the rest of the 
basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
centered just east of Florida and lower pressures in the western 
Gulf will support moderate to locally fresh winds over the 
majority of the Gulf of Mexico into late next week. Fresh to 
locally strong winds will pulse at night into late next week near 
the northern and western Yucatan Peninsula. Haze due to 
agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is evident in the SW and
west-central Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A deep layer trough extends from the western Atlantic southwest 
to Puerto Rico, with a secondary trough analyzed across the 
Leeward Islands. These troughs provide a focused area of lift and,
combined with rich tropical moisture, are leading to scattered 
showers and thunderstorms east of 70W, including Puerto Rico and 
the U.S. Virgin Islands. Locally heavy rainfall continues to bring
a threat of flooding to Puerto Rico. See local weather advisories
for more information. Mariners should also be aware of the 
potential for strong wind gusts and locally rough seas in the area
of showers and thunderstorms. 

The rest of the Caribbean is dominated by a broad subtropical 
ridge over the western Atlantic. Moderate to locally fresh trades 
and slight to moderate seas are noted in the southeast Caribbean, 
while mainly moderate easterly winds and slight seas are observed 
in the northwestern Caribbean and Windward Passage. Light to 
gentle winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E winds in the 
northwestern Caribbean will continue through Mon night. Similar 
winds will occur nocturnally in the Windward Passage. Gentle to 
moderate trade winds are expected elsewhere through the forecast 
period. A surface trough that extends from the western Atlantic 
into the northeastern Caribbean continues to support numerous 
thunderstorms east of 73W. This activity is moving east and is 
producing gusty winds and frequent lightning.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The western Atlantic is under the influence of a weak subtropical
ridge centered between Bermuda and the southeast US coast. A 
generally dry airmass maintains fairly tranquil weather conditions
west of 68W. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 28N50W 
to Puerto Rico. South of 25N and west of the trough, moderate NE 
to E winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. Numerous 
thunderstorms are along and east of the trough, extending east to 
a line from 30N40W to the Leeward Islands. Some of this activity 
may be accompanied by strong gusty winds and frequent lightning. 

The rest of the central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by a 
1022 mb high-pressure system near the Island of Madeira. Moderate
to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas are present south of a 
line from the westernmost of the Canary Islands to the Windward 
Islands. The strongest winds are occurring off Western Sahara. 
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere
across the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned trough will 
shift eastward through the weekend as a cold front drops southward
over the eastern and central waters. The front will shift east of
the area Sun night. High pressure will then settle over the area 
through Wed night.

$$
Nepaul