000
AXNT20 KNHC 252357
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Apr 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Possible Strong Thunderstorms and Heavy Downpours In Hispaniola: 
A persistent surface trough extends southwestward from near 30N61W
across eastern Dominican Republic to near 16N70W. This feature
maintains a very moist southerly flow across Hispaniola, while
strong divergent winds aloft persist across much of the Caribbean
Sea. This combination will remain conducive for strong thunderstorm
activity over and near Hispaniola through Friday. These strong 
thunderstorms are capable of producing heavy downpours, increasing
the chance for flash flooding, especially in hilly terrains and 
low-lying areas. Please refer to local weather service offices for
more details on this event.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
Guinea Bissau and Guinea, then runs southwestward to 08N17W. An 
ITCZ continues from 08N17W through 01N30W to north of Sao Luis,
Brazil at 01S45W. Widely scattered moderate convection is found up
to 200 nm north, and 100 nm south of the ITCZ. No significant
convection is seen near the monsoon trough.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge reaches southwestward from a 1021 mb high at the
northeastern Gulf to near Veracruz, Mexico. Fresh to locally
strong NE to SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are found near the
northern Yucatan Peninsula, at the eastern Bay of Campeche and
northwestern Gulf. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas exist
at the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds and
seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will tighten over the 
Gulf beginning tonight, causing fresh to strong E to SE winds 
to spread across the entire Gulf through Sun night. Seas will 
build to 10 ft in the northwestern Gulf on Sun. Meanwhile, winds 
will pulse to between fresh and strong near the Yucatan Peninsula
each evening through early next week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about the potential for 
strong thunderstorms and heavy downpours in Hispaniola.

Convergent winds north of an equatorial trough are producing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the northern 
Panama coast, and the Providence and Santa Catalina Islands. Fresh
to strong NE to E trade winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are present at
the south-central basin, near the ABC Islands and Windward Passage.
Gentle ENE to E winds along with seas of 2 to 4 ft exist south of
Hispaniola and near the Cayman Islands. Gentle to moderate NE to 
E trades and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean 
Sea.

For the forecast, a 1022 mb Bermuda High near 29N72W will 
sustain fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central 
Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds elsewhere, including the 
Windward Passage through Fri. By Fri evening, further 
strengthening of the high will also introduce fresh to strong 
trade winds in the Gulf of Honduras, lee of Cuba, Windward Passage
and just south of Hispaniola through early next week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about the potential for 
strong thunderstorms and heavy downpours in Hispaniola.

A persistent surface trough extends southwestward from near 30N61W
to beyond the eastern Dominican Republic. Scattered moderate
convection is seen near and up to 50 nm west, and 150 nm east of 
the trough axis. An upper-level trough reaches southward from an
upper low near 27N33W to 06N37W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is present near the low from 24N to 29N between 27W and
33W. Scattered moderate convection is flaring up farther
southeast, north of the Cabo Verde Islands from 20N to 24N between
the Western Sahara coast and 24W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Fresh with locally strong NNE to NE winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft
are noted at the central Atlantic north of 20N between 30W and
45W. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh with locally
strong NNE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas dominate north of 25N between
the northwestern Africa coast and 20W. Otherwise, gentle to
moderate ENE to SE winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft are seen north of
20N between the Africa and Florida-Georgia coast. Near the Cabo
Verde Islands, gentle to moderate NNW to NE winds and 4 to 6 ft
seas exist from 04N to 20N between the central Africa coast and
40W. For the tropical Atlantic from 04N to 20N between 40W and the
Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades with 4 to 7 ft
seas are present. Light to gentle southerly and monsoonal winds
with 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate S swell prevail for the rest of
the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front exiting the southeast U.S.
coast will merge with the aforementioned persistent surface 
trough late Fri. This cold front will reach from 31N58W to 
eastern Cuba by Sat morning, and from near 25N55W to Hispaniola by
Sun morning, then stall and weaken into a trough over the central
Atlantic late Sun through Mon night. N swell behind the front 
will build seas to between 8 and 11 ft over most of the waters 
northeast of the Bahamas by Sun. Strengthening high pressure in 
the wake of the front will result in fresh to strong N to NE 
winds from late Fri through Sun. By late Sun, these winds are 
expected to be at mainly fresh south of 29N and west of 60W. At 
the same time, fresh to strong W to NW winds and building seas are
anticipated north of 27N between 35W and 45W.

$$

Chan