Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 231713

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1213 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1500 UTC.

A broad area of low pressure focused on a 1001 mb centered across
the central Florida peninsula near Cape Canaveral is producing 
near gale to gale force SE winds generally between 90 nm and 240
nm in the northeast quadrant. These gale force conditions are 
expected to persist off the coast of Florida in the SW North Atlc 
waters through 25/1200 UTC. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast 
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N13W to 
02N17W to the equator near 40W. Scattered moderate and isolated 
strong convection is from 04N to 07N between 12W and 17W, from 01N
to 04N between 20W and 24W, and also from 01N to 03N between 27W
and 31W.


The broad surface low mentioned in the Special Features section is
supported aloft by an upper level trough with axis along 80W and 
a vigorous mid-level low and associated energy centered over the 
southern Florida peninsula. An associated cold front extends from
the 1001 mb low near 29N81W to central Cuba near 22N78W and into 
the NW Caribbean Sea. While most of the precipitation is occurring
across the Florida Straits and across eastern portions of the 
Florida peninsula into the SW North Atlantic waters, a few 
lingering isolated showers are occurring east of 86W within the 
western periphery of the low.

Otherwise, the remainder of the basin is under the influence a
weak pressure pattern. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail
across the western Gulf this morning and are expected to become 
more southerly by tonight into Friday as low pressure develops 
across the central CONUS. The next cold front is forecast to 
emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts Friday night.

Most of the Caribbean remains under the influence of dry and
relatively stable west-northwesterly flow aloft. A mid-level low
and associated energy remains across the Florida peninsula and
Florida Straits this morning supporting a cold front extending 
across central Cuba and into the NW Caribbean waters from 21.5N79W
to 18N85W. A pre-frontal surface trough is also analyzed from 
eastern Cuba near 20N76W to near the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border. 
Isolated showers and possible isolated tstms are noted within 120
to 180 nm east of the surface trough, while isolated showers are 
possible N of 17N E of 86W in association with the cold front. 

Moderate to fresh W-NW winds are occurring in wake of the front 
which are expected to weaken gradually through the rest of today
as the cold front progresses eastward as dissipates across the 
north-central waters tonight into Friday. Farther east, a
dissipating stationary front remains analyzed across the Leeward 
Islands to the adjacent southern coastal waters of Puerto Rico 
with isolated showers occurring N of 17N E of 68W. The remainder 
of the basin is under mostly fair skies and relatively tranquil 
conditions as the overall trade wind flow is disrupted with the 
presence of the frontal systems impacting the basin. A more normal
trade wind synoptic pattern is expected by Saturday night into 

Isolated showers are expected to continue as an approaching pre- 
frontal surface trough and cold front increase cloudiness and 
probability of convective precipitation through the rest of today.
The front will reach the Windward Passage by tonight and 
gradually weaken as the low pressure system associated with the 
front moves N-NE Friday into Saturday.

A broad area of low pressure is analyzed across the Florida
peninsula that stretches influence eastward across the much of 
the SW North Atlc W of 70W. In addition to the area of near gale 
to gale force winds occurring with the low as it tracks 
eastward, scattered to numerous showers and widely scattered 
tstms are occurring across a large area N of 20W W of 70W.

The low is expected to be slow to move E-NE and N of the 
discussion area by Saturday. Farther east, a middle to upper 
level low is centered across the central North Atlc near 41N46W 
that supports a cold front analyzed into the discussion area near 
32N44W extending SW to 23N51W, continuing as a stationary front to
18N65W. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring within 180 to
240 nm east of the front, as well as within 420 nm southeast of a
line from 20N48W to 11N60W. Finally, the remainder of the eastern
Atlantic is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 
1028 mb high centered S of the Azores near 38W26W.

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Page last modified: Thursday, 23-Feb-2017 17:13:19 UTC