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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 282353
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
753 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Gaston is centered near 30.8N 55.1W at 28/2100 UTC or
about 505 nm E of Bermuda moving NW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 962 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt
with gusts to 120 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection
is from 27N-33N between 51W-58W. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory
under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more
details.

Tropical Depression Eight is centered near 31.8N 70.9W at 28/2100
UTC or about 310 nm SE of Cape Hatteras North Carolina and about
315 nm W of Bermuda moving W at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with
gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 32N-34N
between 72W-75W. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under the
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Depression Nine is centered near 23.7N 81.7W at 28/2100
UTC or about 50 nm NE of Havana Cuba and about 50 nm S of Key West
Florida moving W at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40
kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from
20N-25N between 79W-84W. Scattered moderate convection is
elsewhere from 16N-25N between 75W-84W. See latest NHC Forecast/
Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24KNHC for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
None.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from 12N16W to 09N24W to 09N37W to
08N42W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
08N42W to 07N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-13N
between 11W-15W...and from 06N-10N between 49W-62W. Isolated
moderate convection is from 12N-15N between 17W-20W...and from
05N-10N between 23W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
The primary concern is Tropical Depression Nine centered in the
Florida Straits this evening. The depression finds itself on the
southeastern periphery of an upper level anticyclonic circulation
centered over the eastern Gulf waters near 26N86W which will allow
for slow and gradual strengthening during the next several days.
Farther W-NW as the overall synoptic pattern of weaker surface
pressures continue across the basin...a weak 1013 mb low is
centered in the NW Gulf near 28N94W. A surface trough extends from
the Texas coast near Freeport through the low center to 26N92W.
Scattered showers and tstms are occurring across a large portion
of the northern Gulf waters N of 26N between 85W-95W. This
convection is likely enhanced due to middle to upper level
diffluence associated with an upper level low centered near
29N93W. Otherwise...outside of the low pressure areas previously
mentioned...recent observations and earlier scatterometer data
indicate gentle to moderate E to NE winds across the NE Gulf and
NE to N winds across the western Gulf through Monday. By
Tuesday...T.D. Nine is expected across central portions of the
basin and will begin re-curving to the NE and in the general
direction of the Florida Big Bend region.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level ridge axis extends from over Tropical Depression
Nine centered in the Florida Straits SE to the south-central
Caribbean near 14N74W. The ridging is providing an overall
diffluent environment aloft in support of scattered showers and
tstms occurring generally N of 15N between 69W-85W...including
portions of Hispaniola...Jamaica...and most of Cuba this evening.
Farther SW...weaker surface pressures are observed as troughing
extending from T.D. Nine links across Central America to the
beginning on the Monsoon Trough axis off the coast of southern
Mexico in the East Pacific region. Scattered showers and tstms are
occurring across inland portions of Central America and have the
potential to generate localized flooding and possible mud slides
through the overnight hours into Monday as the precipitation
persists. Over the eastern Caribbean...an upper level low is
centered N-NE of Puerto Rico near 22N63W with the associated
surface trough analyzed from 19N66W to 26N63W. Widely scattered
showers and isolated tstms are occurring N of 15N between 61W-
69W...including Puerto Rico...the US/UK Virgin Island and the
northern Leeward Islands. Otherwise...moderate to fresh trades
will re-establish themselves E of 80W overnight and increase to
fresh to strong across the central Caribbean by Monday night
persisting through Thursday.

...HISPANIOLA...
Scattered showers and tstms associated with an upper level low
centered NE of the island near 22N63W are occurring across the
island this evening. The upper level low is expected to continue
drifting westward to 70W through Monday and then begin moving N
and weakening by Tuesday. Additional precipitation and convection
with possible heavy rainfall...flash flooding...and mud slides are
anticipated across the island through Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Aside from active tropical cyclones...scattered showers and
isolated tstms are noted across the SW North Atlc waters on the NE
periphery of Tropical Depression Nine centered in the Florida
Straits. The convection is generally S of 28N W of 72W...including
the Bahamas. To the east...an upper level low is centered near
22N63W and supports a surface trough from 19N66W to 26N63W. Widely
scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring from 16N-26N
between 60W-70W. Otherwise...the remainder of the central and
eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by
a 1022 mb high centered near 31N43W and a stronger 1028 mb high
centered W of the Iberian peninsula near 43N18W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN


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Page last modified: Sunday, 28-Aug-2016 23:54:01 UTC