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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 301042
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
805 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N30W TO 10N29W MOVING W AT 15-20 
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LARGELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS AND 
COINCIDES WITH A GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 700 MB JET MAXIMUM TO 
THE EAST OF THE AXIS IN THE VICINITY OF 07N28W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 29W-34W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N68W TO 18N68W MOVING W AT 15-20 
KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY 
OF A 700 MB RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 20N57W WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 
LEVEL ENERGY SHEARING TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO A BROAD UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN AND 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IN PLACE TO 
THE WEST AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE MAXIMIZED IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS...SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-22N BETWEEN 62W-70W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 
09N16W TO 08N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 08N19W TO 04N31W TO 03N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-10N BETWEEN 18W-25W...AND FROM 03N-06N 
BETWEEN 47W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON 
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW 
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF NEAR 27N85W. WHILE A WEAK MIDDLE 
TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS 
MORNING...MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IS 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE GULF BASIN RESULTING IN MOSTLY 
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY. SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO 
HOLD WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS PREVAILING THROUGH EARLY 
SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO CLIP THE 
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AND LIFT 
NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER 
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS 
ALOFT ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGHING...HOWEVER MINIMAL MID-LEVEL 
LIFTING DYNAMICS AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ARE GENERATING A FEW 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF 
CUBA...INCLUDING THE WESTERN YUCATAN CHANNEL AREA. OTHERWISE... 
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND 
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. FARTHER EAST...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT 
PREVAILS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGHING. THIS 
DIFFLUENT ZONE ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 
69W IS PROVIDING FOR INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE...ALONG 
WITH A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS 
GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W 
TO THE NICARAGUA COAST NEAR 11N84W. LOOKING AHEAD...EAST-
SOUTHEAST TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM FRESH BREEZE 
CONDITIONS TO A RANGE OF FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS BY 
MONDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED TO THE NORTHEAST OVER 
THE CENTRAL ATLC CREATES A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS 
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...                                        
CURRENTLY MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY 
INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 69W AND THE 
PRESENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGHING IS PROVIDING AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT 
ZONE OVER THE ISLAND AND SURROUNDING REGION WITH SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH 
ATLC NEAR 30N65W THAT SUPPORTS A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 
26N68W WITH SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE LOW TO 29N66W 
AND SW FROM THE LOW TO 24N71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING 
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW CENTER...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS 
OCCURRING FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 63W-65W. OTHERWISE...THE 
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE 
ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS NEAR 
35N80W. TO THE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...MID-LEVEL ENERGY 
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IS MORE APPARENT 
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE 
OCCURRING FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 51W-63W. FINALLY...THE EASTERN 
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 
1028 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

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Page last modified: Saturday, 30-May-2015 10:42:36 UTC