Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 032340 RRA

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
639 PM EST SAT DEC 3 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

Very broad middle to upper level troughing is noted on water vapor
imagery over the central Atlc waters supporting a cold front
analyzed from 32N52W SW to near the NW Bahamas. The front is
expected to generate near gale to gale force SW winds late
Saturday night into early Sunday across the waters N of 30N east
of the front to 42W. The near gale to gale force conditions are
expected to persist through Monday. See latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N11W to
06N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
06N21W to 05N27W to 06N38W to 07N51W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 02N-08N between the Prime Meridian and 10W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is from 06N-18N between 31W-


Southwesterly flow aloft prevails ahead of an approaching middle
to upper level trough noted on water vapor imagery over NW Mexico
and the Baja peninsula. This upper level feature is continuing to
develop a broad area of surface low pressure across northern
Mexico...the Rio Grande River valley...and portions of the NW
Gulf. A warm front extends from a 1008 mb low centered across
southern Texas near 27N98W along the coast to southern Louisiana
then to the nearshore waters S of Mobile Bay. Scattered showers
and tstms are occurring within 60 nm either side of the front W of
90W. Generally moderate to fresh E-SE winds are anticipated
overnight into Sunday as the front meanders across the NW and
north-central waters. By Monday...a surface low is expected to
develop in the vicinity of Corpus Christi with the associated
cold front emerging off the Texas coast early Monday. The front
will quickly move across the basin through Tuesday night into
Wednesday and stall across the central Florida peninsula and SE
Gulf waters.

An upper level ridge remains centered over much of the Caribbean
basin with axis extending from over Panama near 07N81W to 26N80W.
Water vapor imagery indicates relatively dry and stable air aloft
in association with the ridging however a surface trough analyzed
from 08N77W into a weak 1010 mb low near 11N78W to 18N80W is
providing focus for scattered showers and widely scattered tstms
from 12N-19N between 75W-85W. Otherwise...moderate to fresh
trades prevail and are expected to persist through Tuesday.

Currently isolated showers linger across the island and the
adjacent Caribbean Sea waters. This generally lower level
moisture and cloudiness remains beneath an upper level ridge
anchored over Panama near 07N81W. Water vapor imagery indicates
a relatively dry and stable environment persists aloft.

Generally W-NW flow aloft prevails to 50W...however the special
features cold front extends into the discussion area near 32N52W
SW to the NW Bahamas near 25N77W. Isolated showers are noted
within 90 nm either side of the front...and generally N of 26N E
of the front to 50W. To the SE...a surface trough is analyzed from
Puerto Rico N-NE to 25N62W. Within a weakness between ridging
across the central Atlc and the SW North Atlc...isolated showers
and tstms are occurring within 180 nm either side of the boundary.
Otherwise...the remainder of the eastern and central Atlc is under
the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1017 mb high
centered near 24N41W. Within the southeastern periphery of the
ridge...an upper level trough axis extends from 22N46W to a broad
base in the deep tropics near 11N54W. Southwesterly flow aloft is
generating a large area of cloudiness and precipitation
highlighted as part of the ITCZ convection and extends from the
ITCZ to 24N generally E of 47W.

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine


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Page last modified: Saturday, 03-Dec-2016 23:40:26 UTC