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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 292349
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
749 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic off the 
coast of west Africa. The axis of the wave extends from 16N22W to
05N24W. The wave is moving west at 20 kt. TPW satellite imagery 
shows the wave is embedded in moderately moist environment near 
the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough. This wave possesses a good signature in 
the 700 mb wind flow field. There is no significant convection 
currently associated with this wave.

A tropical wave located over the eastern Atlantic has an axis 
extending from 11N35W to 01N38W. The wave is moving west at 10 to
15 kt. TPW satellite imagery shows the wave is embedded in a 
moderately moist environment near the ITCZ. The wave lies just to 
the southeast of large area of dry air associated with the 
Saharan Air Layer mainly north of 10N. This wave possesses a weak
signature in the 700 mb wind flow field. Scattered moderate 
convection is seen south of 10N between 30W-44W.

A tropical wave over the western Atlantic has an axis extending 
from 12N59W to 02N58W. The wave is moving west at 15 to 20 kt. TPW
satellite imagery shows the wave is embedded a moderately moist 
environment. Dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer north 
of 10N is inhibiting convection along the northern portion of the 
wave. This wave possesses a weak signature in the 700 mb wind flow
field. Scattered moderate convection is seen south of 10N between
50W-62W.

A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean and has an axis 
extending from 15N69W to 02N70W. The wave is moving west at 15 to
20 kt. TPW satellite imagery shows the wave is embedded in a 
moderately moist environment. This wave possesses a good signature
in the 700 mb wind flow field. Scattered moderate convection is 
sheared NE of the wave's axis south of 11N between 70W-75W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends SW into the tropical Atlantic from  
16N16W to 13N20W. The ITCZ begins near 08N25W to 05N36W then
resumes west of a tropical wave near 04N39W to 03N51W. Isolated
showers are observed along the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A frontal boundary stalling along the Rio Grande and SE Texas has
served as the primary focus for the development of showers and 
thunderstorms today. A squall line moved into the west Gulf
extending from 28N94W to 24N94W to 22N98W. Aside from the squall
line, scattered moderate convection prevails across the western
half of the basin supported by a diffluent flow aloft. A surface
ridge prevails across the eastern Gulf anchored by a pair of 
highs centered near 29N90W and 28N84W. Expect convection to 
persist over the NW Gulf as the stalled frontal boundary remains 
inland just to the NW. Also expect showers to persist over the Bay
of Campeche during the next 24 hours as upper-level divergence 
associated with the upper-level trough serves as a catalyst for 
deep convection. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is passing over the E Caribbean. See the Tropical
Waves section for more details. The Monsoon Trough extends over 
Costa Rica, Panama and Northern Colombia supporting scattered 
moderate convection associated S of 11N. A broad upper-level 
ridge extends north over the Caribbean from Central and South 
America. An upper level trough passes just north of the Caribbean
from the Bahamas to Puerto Rico. Subsident flow between the ridge
and trough will generally inhibit convection, except over the
islands where diurnal heating and orographic lifting is
generations scattered showers and thunderstorms. Little change is
expected during the next 24 hours.

HISPANIOLA...

Water vapor imagery shows strong subsidence over the island, 
hindering convection. However, patches of low-level moisture, 
embedded in the trade wind flow, will maintain isolated showers 
through the evening hours. A similar scenario will continue
through the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to
the section above for details. A surface trough extends across the
west Atlantic from 31N78W to 27N79W. No convection is related to
this feature at this time. A broad 1027 mb high is centered over 
the east Atlantic near 33N30W. This high extends across the whole 
basin. Saharan dry air is noted across much of the Atlantic Ocean 
north of 10N and east of 50W inhibiting significant convection. 
Expect during the next 24 hours for showers to form over the
Atlantic in the vicinity of the Lesser Antilles as a tropical 
wave approaches.

For additional information please 
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA


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Page last modified: Monday, 29-May-2017 23:50:04 UTC