Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 190544

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1244 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0515 UTC.


A cold front over the NW Gulf of Mexico extends from SE Louisiana
near 30N90W to Brownsville Texas near 26N97W. Gale force northerly 
winds are W of 90W and N of front, with seas to 8 ft. The cold
front will move across the remainder of the Gulf through Monday. 
Gale force winds are forecast to persist for the next 36 hours
over portions of the Gulf. See the latest high seas forecast 
under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 for more details. 


The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to 
06N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 
06N22W to 06N45W to the South American coast near 08N59W. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-06N between 17W-21W,  
and from 04N-07N between 27W-32W.



A cold front and gale are over the NW Gulf of Mexico. See above.
Radar imagery shows scattered showers are within 15 nm of the
front over Louisiana, and mostly void of precipitation over the
Gulf of Mexico. 5-15 kt southerly winds are S of the front. Mostly
fair weather is S of the front. In the upper levels, zonal flow is
noted with strong subsidence. Expect in 24 hours for the front to
extend from central Florida to the SW Bay of Campeche. Gale force
winds will then be S of 21N W of front. 


A 1007 mb low is centered near the N tip of Colombia at 13N71W. A
surface trough extends N from the low to Hispaniola at 18N71W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 12N-15N between
69W-71W, to include Aruba and Curacao. Scattered showers are
elsewhere within 360 nm E of the trough axis, to include Puerto 
Rico and the Virgin Islands. In the upper levels, an upper level 
trough is over the NW Caribbean with axis from E Cuba near 20N74W
to the Gulf of Honduras near 16N89W. Upper level diffluence E of 
the trough is enhancing the showers and convection over the 
central Caribbean Sea. Expect the area of convection to drift E 
and persist for the next 48 hours.


Scattered showers are over E Hispaniola, and will continue 
through Monday. Expect convection to be heaviest over E 
Hispaniola in the afternoon and evening hours during maximum 
heating. Localized flooding is also possible during this time.


A 1018 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 33N66W
producing fair weather. A stationary front is over the central 
Atlantic from 31N40W to 27N50W, to an embedded 1009 mb low near 
25N54W, to 22N61W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm 
of the front. A 1018 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near
30N26W also producing fair weather. Of note in the upper levels, 
a large upper level trough is over the W Atlantic enhancing the 
central Atlantic with upper level diffluence. Another upper level
trough is over the far E Atlantic and Morocco. 

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Page last modified: Sunday, 19-Nov-2017 05:44:47 UTC