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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 290005
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
705 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 06N10W TO 03N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES 
ALONG 02N33W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01N50W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 08N BETWEEN 20W AND 
45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING HAS BUILT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BEHIND A COLD 
FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SW N ATLC WATERS. THIS RIDGE COVERS THE 
EASTERN U.S. AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF BEING ANCHORED BY A 1030 
MB HIGH ON THE OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDER AND A 1026 MB HIGH 
OVER GEORGIA. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND DEEP LAYER DRY AIR ACROSS 
THE BASIN SUPPORT STABILITY AND FAIR WEATHER. WINDS EAST OF 90W 
ARE FROM THE NE RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 KT. WEST OF 90W...WINDS 
ARE FROM THE E-SE RANGING FROM 5 TO 10 KT. SURFACE RIDGING WILL 
CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A NEW COLD 
FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF FROM ALABAMA SW TO CORPUS 
CHRISTI EARLY MORNING FRIDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA 
PENINSULA THROUGH THE NIGHT HOURS...WEAKENING AND EXITING THE 
BASIN SATURDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ANCHORED ON NOVA 
SCOTIA AND ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS WITH TAIL REACHING FROM 
ANDROS TO WESTERN CUBA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE 
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER 
FRONT THAT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 30N60W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA SW 
TO 12N80W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCES ISOLATED 
SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S-SW OF HAITI. AN 
UPPER RIDGE E-NE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BASE IS GENERATING 
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS 
ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS...EXCEPT FOR THE MONA 
PASSAGE. NORTHERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT IS WEST OF THE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY WHILE TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICA COASTAL WATERS AS 
WELL AS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR SUPPORTS FAIR 
WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE 
THU MORNING BUT SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH IT 
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA... 

A STATIONARY FRONT SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE 
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC...ACROSS 
THE ISLAND WITH TAIL REACHING THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS. LOW-LEVEL 
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S-SW OF HAITI. AN UPPER RIDGE E-NE OF 
THE UPPER TROUGH BASE IS GENERATING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND 
ADJACENT WATERS...EXCEPT FOR THE MONA PASSAGE. THE STATIONARY 
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE THU MORNING BUT SHOWERS ACROSS 
HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY 
MORNING. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ANCHORED ON NOVA 
SCOTIA AND ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS ALONG 30N65W TO THE 
CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH TAIL REACHING WESTERN CUBA. A MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS 
THE COLD FRONT AND A SECOND FRONT AHEAD OF IT THAT BECOMES 
STATIONARY FROM 30N60W TO NORTHERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W TO THE 
SW CARIBBEAN. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. 
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT 
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 24N AND WITHIN 175 NM E OF THE 
FRONT N OF 24N. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER 
BASIN WITH A WEAKNESS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 28N40W 
TO 21N37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM 
E OF ITS AXIS S OF 25N. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH 
THE STATIONARY FRONT DURING THU MORNING HOURS. THE TAIL OF THIS 
FRONT WILL BE NEARLY-STATIONARY ACROSS HISPANIOLA THU BEFORE IT 
DISSIPATES. A SECOND COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FRI 
MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


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