Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 240553

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
153 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0515 UTC.


A 1007 mb low presently just N of the W tip of Grand Bahama Island 
will move N to 30N79W in 12 hours. The pressure gradient between 
this low and a high to the east will then result in gale force 
southeast winds from 30N-31N between 73W-74W, with seas to 12 ft.
Please see the latest High Seas Forecast product under the WMO 
header FZNT02 KNHC and under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 for 
further details. 


The Monsoon Trough extends across the western Africa coast from 
07N12W to 02N25W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues 
from 02N25W to 02N32W to the South American coast near 02S45W. 
Isolated moderate convection is within 240 nm of the ITCZ axis
between 25W-42W.



As of 24/0300 UTC a cold front extends over the W Gulf of Mexico 
from N Florida near 30N83W to 23N90W to S of Tampico Mexico near
20.5N97W. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over N Florida, 
however, the remainder of the front over the Gulf is void of 
precipitation. 20 kt N winds are N of the front. Broken low 
clouds are also N of the front. In the upper levels, an upper 
level trough is over the Gulf with axis along 85W. Strong
subsidence is over the entire Gulf. Expect in 24 hours for the 
cold front to extend from the Straits of Florida near 25N80W to 
the N Yucatan Peninsula with scattered showers. 15-20 kt NW winds
will be N of front. 


A 1008 mb low is centered over N Colombia near 10N73W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 120 nm of the low. Elsewhere,
scattered moderate convection is along the S coast of Hispaniola. 
Similar convection is over N Belize. Radar imagery shows scattered
showers over E Puerto Rico and St Croix. More scattered showers
are over the Leeward Islands, Panama, Costa Rica, Honduras, and
Guatemala. 20-25 kt E wind are noted over the E Caribbean E of 
74W. In the upper levels, a broad ridge is noted with axis along
70W. Upper level moisture is over the NE Caribbean from Hispaniola 
to the Leeward Islands. Expect over the next 24 hours for 
additional scattered showers to be over Puerto Rico, and the 
Leeward Islands.


Presently lightning detection shows thunderstorms along the S 
coast of Hispaniola. Scattered showers are elsewhere over the
island. Expect more scattered moderate convection and scattered 
showers over the island for the next 24 hours. Expect the heaviest
convection over the afternoon and evening hours, during maximum 


Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the 
Bahamas. A 1022 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 
29N63W. The tail end of a dissipating cold front is over the 
central Atlantic from 31N34W to 28N39W. Scattered showers are
within 90 nm of the front. A 1020 mb high is centered W of the 
Canary Islands near 29N20W. Of note in the upper levels, a large 
upper level low is centered over the E Atlantic near 35N37W 
enhancing convection mostly E of the center. Expect over the next 
24 hours for the scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
over the Bahamas to move E. 

For additional information please 
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine


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Page last modified: Monday, 24-Apr-2017 05:53:24 UTC