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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

000
AXNT20 KNHC 111757
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED DEC 11 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 10N13W TO 9N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES 
ALONG 4N33W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-
10N BETWEEN 30W-46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 27W-38W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                                
A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE SW 
ATLC GIVING THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. A REMNANT COLD FRONT EXTENDS 
FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA AT 11/1500 UTC NEAR THE N SHORE 
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AND CONTINUES 
INTO THE GULF NEAR FORT MYERS ALONG 25N89W 22N94W TO S MEXICO 
NEAR 18N93W. DENSE LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS 
ARE WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE FRONT FROM 83W-90W AND W OF THE 
REMAINDER OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA...TEXAS AND 
MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM W CUBA 
TO THE FLORIDA KEYS BETWEEN 80W-84W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING 
S OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH OVER THE TENNESSEE/ 
KENTUCKY BORDER. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. STATIONARY FRONT WILL WEAKEN 
THROUGH FRI. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF 
THE GULF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI. SECOND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO 
NW GULF SAT AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO 
SUN WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG MEXICAN COAST BEHIND 
FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                              
THE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 75W EXTENDING A 
RIDGE AXIS FROM PANAMA ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND W CUBA. A 
SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE COAST OF 
THE YUCATAN FROM 21N86W 18N87W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 
16N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE FROM 15N-22N W OF 78W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NE 
CARIBBEAN FROM THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC ALONG 
17N62W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 15N E OF 68W TO INLAND OVER THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO PUERTO RICO. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE 
BANKING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 15N W OF 79W. SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS 
CENTRAL ATLC WILL SHIFT E AND WEAKEN THROUGH WEEKEND. STRONG 
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF E COAST BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE THU 
THROUGH FRI THEN SHIFT E THROUGH WEEKEND. 

HISPANIOLA...                                                   
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN AND EASTERLY TRADE WINDS 
ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN 
REPUBLIC THIS AFTERNOON. THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
THE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N W 
OF 40W ANCHORED NEAR 26N58W. A REMNANT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W 
ATLC AT 11/1500 UTC NEAR 32N63W AND CONTINUES ALONG 29N75W TO 
OVER FLORIDA NEAR THE N SHORE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE THEN CONTINUES 
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A STATIONARY FRONT. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE 
SE CONUS IS BUILDING E INTO THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT. A SECOND 
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC TO OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLC FROM 30W TO THE W ATLC FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB 
HIGH NEAR 30N43W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E ATLC NEAR 
32N21W ALONG 23N29W TO 15N45W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT 
ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N16W AND EXTENDS TO 24N25W WHERE IT 
DISSIPATES TO 19N37W. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT 
EXTENDING FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N16W TO 18N25W WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE SURFACE 
TROUGH N OF 24N AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE COLD 
FRONT. W ATLC WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL TODAY BEFORE MOVING SE 
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO EXTREME S FLORIDA 
THU THEN TO FLORIDA KEYS FRI NIGHT WHERE IT STALL WEAKEN AND 
DISSIPATE SAT. STRONG COLD FRONT MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA AND INTO NW 
WATERS SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
PAW