Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 260509

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
109 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.


A tropical wave that emerged to the west of Africa yesterday has 
an axis extending from 09N20W to 00N21W. The wave is moving W at 
10-15 kt. The wave is located in an area of low wind shear. TPW 
imagery shows the wave is situated in an area of deep layer 
moisture. Despite this there is no significant convection 
currently associated with this wave.

A tropical wave located in the W Atlc has an axis extending from 
11N47W to 03N50W. The wave is moving W 20 to 25 kt. The wave is 
located in an area of moderate wind shear. TPW imagery shows the 
wave is situated in an area of deep layer moisture. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 07N to 11n
between 46W and 50W.

A tropical wave over the western Atlc has an axis extending from 
14N52W to 04N56W. The wave is moving W at 15 kt. Strong wind shear
and Saharan dry air enveloping the wave is inhibiting convection.

A tropical wave is over the southwest Caribbean with axis 
extending from 15N81W across Panama to EPAC waters near 03N80W. 
The wave is moving W at 15 to 20 kt. TPW imagery shows the wave is
situated in an area of deep layer moisture. However, strong 
vertical wind shear is inhibiting the development of convection in
the vicinity of this wave.

A tropical wave is moving into SE Mexico from the Yucatan 
Peninsula and Guatemala. The wave axis extends from 21N89W into 
the NE Pacific at 13N92W. The wave has moved W at 15 kt during the
last 24 hours. Numerous showers and scattered tstms associated 
with this wave are located inland over Guatemala from 15N to 18N 
between 89W and 92W. The wave will complete its move into EPAC 
waters today.


The Monsoon Trough enters the tropical Atlc from Guinea in W 
Africa near 12N16W and continues to 06N18W to 06N20W. The ITCZ 
continues from 04N23W to 04N30W to 07N39W to 07N44W. Aside from 
the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 02N to 07N
between 25W and 32W.



An area of strong upper-level convergence resides over the Gulf. 
This area of convergence lies to the W of an upper-level trough 
extending S along the East Coast to the United States. A stalling 
and weakening frontal boundary crosses the SE Gulf from the 
Florida Keys to the Northern Yucatan Peninsula. The front is 
expected to dissipate by Friday evening. Strong subsidence over 
the gulf is putting the damper on any significant convection over 
the Gulf and in the vicinity of the front. Weak high pressure has 
moved over the NE Gulf. Light to gentle winds are noted in the 
vicinity of the high. Moderate to fresh SE to S return flow has 
already developed over the Western Gulf. Similar conditions are 
expected to continue over the gulf through Sunday.


A tropical wave is passing over the SW Caribbean. See the 
tropical waves section for more details on this system. A 
weakening frontal boundary is located just NW of the basin from W 
Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula. The front is not expected to 
provide the focus for any significant convection. Otherwise, high 
pressure over the central Atlc ridges SW across the eastern 
Caribbean Sea. The ridge supports fresh to strong easterly winds 
across the east and central Caribbean and near gale force winds 
along the coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh ESE winds are over 
the western part of the basin, except for S of 11N, where winds 
are lighter in the vicinity of lower pressure over the Eastern 
Pacific. Fresh to near gale winds will persist over the central 
Caribbean through Friday, then diminish on Saturday. Pulsing fresh
to strong E to SE winds are expected over the Gulf of Honduras at
night through Monday night.


Mostly dry and hazy conditions will prevail across the island 
under the influence of the ridge to the NE. Model guidance 
continues to show limited moisture across the region through 
Saturday evening as upper-level convergence associated with a 
ridge extending NE from the Caribbean remains in place.


A cold front enters the forecast area over the SW N Atlc near 
32N74W. The front extends SW to the Florida Keys and northern tip 
of the Yucatan Peninsula. A band of showers and thunderstorms is 
found just NE of the Northern Bahamas along and up to 60 nm ahead 
of the front to the E of 78W. Fresh to strong winds are noted W of
the front to the N of 29N. E of the front to 65W winds are fresh 
to strong N of 27N. A 1026 mb high pressure centered near 31N49W 
currently dominates the remainder of the western Atlantic and 
central Atlantic. A weakening frontal boundary crosses the NE 
forecast waters from 32N17W to 26N26W to 26N33W to 23N43W. This 
front will continue to weaken and dissipate by Saturday evening. 
Three tropical waves are located over the Atlc between 20W and 
56W. Please refer to the tropical waves section for more details.

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Page last modified: Friday, 26-May-2017 05:10:30 UTC