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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 300003
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
805 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM 9N26W TO 
2N28W...MOVING AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE 
EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. 
IN CONTRAST A DRY AIRMASS IS FURTHER N OVER THE CAPE VERDE 
ISLANDS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOW A 
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM 
OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDS FROM 17N65W TO 
9N66W...MOVING AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE 
EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM WITHIN 180 NM OF 
THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 
6N25W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N30W TO 4N40W TO THE SOUTH 
AMERICAN COAST NEAR 3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OFF THE AFRICA COAST FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 17W-22W. 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 34W-
52W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N82W 
PRODUCING 5-10 KT SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF FROM 
26N-29N BETWEEN 87W-89W MOVING W. MORE ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS OVER THE W GULF N OF TAMPICO MEXICO FROM 22N-25N 
BETWEEN 96W-99W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER S 
FLORIDA S OF 27N MOVING W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER SE LOUISIANA 
AND S MISSISSIPPI. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS 
CENTERED OVER E TEXAS NEAR 31N96W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW 
IS CENTERED OVER TAMPA FLORIDA. A KOL AREA IS OVER THE NORTH 
CENTRAL GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A 1009 
MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N75W. 10-20 KT 
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE 
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
INLAND OVER VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA... AND 
GUATEMALA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PUERTO RICO... 
HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 19N. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. A LARGE BAND OF 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA TO THE LEEWARD 
ISLANDS. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS PARTIALLY 
DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA.  
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DUE TO 
THE TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FLORIDA E COAST 
W OF 78W MOVING W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 
31N66W TO 22N70 WITH AN EMBEDDED 1015 MB LOW AT 26N68W. A LARGE 
1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 38N51W. SURFACE 
RIDGING IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N BETWEEN 10W-50W. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC NEAR 27N64W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED 
NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 30N22W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE W. ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL 
LOWS TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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Page last modified: Saturday, 30-May-2015 00:03:52 UTC