Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 171718

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1218 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1545 UTC.

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to 
06N24W to 07N30W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 07N30W to 08N38W to 05N52W. Widely scattered moderate 
convection is from 03N-13N between 18W-42W.


NW flow aloft prevails over the Gulf basin this afternoon on the
western periphery of an upper level trough extending over the SW
North Atlc...southern Florida peninsula...and base over southern
Mexico. Mostly stable conditions are noted at the surface as a 
ridge axis extends from an Ohio River valley anchored 1027 mb high
near 40N81W S-SW to the lower Mississippi River valley into the SW
Gulf near 21N95W. Skies are mostly clear with the exception of a 
few possible isolated showers within 60 nm either side of a 
surface trough analyzed from 18N94W to 23N98W. Otherwise...gentle
to moderate anticyclonic winds are forecast through early Friday
night. The next cold front is expected to emerge off the Texas 
and Louisiana coasts by late Saturday into Saturday night. Fresh 
to strong N-NE winds will follow in wake of the front as it sweeps
southeastward through Sunday night into early Monday.

A broad area of lower pressure across the basin continues to be
focused on a 1008 mb low centered SW of Hispaniola near 17N73W. A
surface trough extends SW from the low to near 11N77W and links up
with the monsoon trough axis along 09N/10N supporting scattered 
showers and strong tstms from 09N-18N between 68W-79W.
Otherwise...moderate to occasional fresh northerly winds are 
noted across the western Caribbean waters generally W of 
77W...while trade wind flow E of the surface troughing will 
continue to be disrupted outside of convection...with gentle to 
moderate southerly winds prevailing this afternoon through the 
upcoming weekend. The low is expected to remain nearly stationary 
SW of Hispaniola and gradually dissipate by Monday.

Widely scattered showers and isolated tstms are expected to 
persist across the island the next few days as deep moisture and
cloudiness advects NE over the region due to an upper trough to 
the NW over the SW North Atlc and SE Gulf of Mexico. Convection 
will likely be more widespread in areal coverage during the 
afternoon and evening hours due to maximum heating and

The SW North Atlc is under the influence of an relatively dry
middle to upper level trough with axis extending from 32N75W to
over the Florida Straits to a base over southern Mexico. However a
cold front primarily analyzed N of the discussion area extends
from 32N68W to 30N73W providing possible isolated showers from
26N-32N between the front and 65W. More active weather lies to 
the SE as the upper level troughing has continued to support 
another cold front entering the discussion area across the central
Atlc. The cold front extends from 32N41W SW to 27N51W becoming
stationary into a 1009 mb low centered near 24N64W. Weak surface
troughing then continues W-SW to the coast of Hispaniola near
20N72W and into the central Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers and
widely scattered tstms are occurring across a large area in the
vicinity of the troughing and stationary front from 20N-29N
between 51W-74W. Other widely scattered showers and isolated tstms
are occurring in association with the cold front from 25N-32N
between 32W-47W. The frontal troughing is expected to persist 
across the central Atlc through Saturday night as ridging builds 
in off the SE CONUS and into the SW North Atlc. Finally...mostly 
tranquil conditions are noted across the eastern Atlc in the
vicinity of a 1018 mb high centered near 28N29W...however a 
surface trough extends from a weakening 1014 mb low centered SE of
the Azores to near 27N23W. Possible isolated showers are N of 27N
between 15W-21W...including the Canary Islands.

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Page last modified: Friday, 17-Nov-2017 17:18:31 UTC