Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 281027

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
627 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0945 UTC.

A middle to upper level shortwave trough is noted on water vapor
imagery in the vicinity of 30N67W supporting a 1005 mb low 
centered near 27N67W. Near gale to gale force winds are occurring
within 30 nm either side of a line from 27N69W to 30N64W with 
fresh to strong winds occurring elsewhere primarily within the NW 
semicircle of the low. The low is forecast to move E-NE through 
Thursday with the near gale to gale force wind area rotating 
around the base of the low. By late Thursday...the low will have 
moved N of the discussion area with near gale to gale force winds 
expected N of 28N between 44W-54W. Please see the latest NWS High 
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for 
more details.

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 05N09W to 
01N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 
01N18W to the Equator near 36W. Scattered moderate convection is 
from 01N-04N between 16W-36W. Isolated moderate convection is S 
of 06N between 36W-50W.


West-northwesterly flow aloft prevails over the Gulf this morning
with water vapor imagery indicating a relatively dry and stable 
airmass in place. A ridge axis extends W-SW from a 1018 mb high 
centered across the east-central Gulf near 28N84W to the Mexico 
coast near 25N97W. Mostly gentle to moderate S-SE winds prevail 
across the basin under clear skies and these winds are expected to
increase across western portions by Tuesday night as the next 
area of low pressure develops across the SW CONUS. As this low 
ejects into the southern Plains by Wednesday night...the 
associated cold front is forecast to emerge off the Texas and 
Louisiana coasts Thursday.

West-southwesterly flow aloft prevails over the Caribbean basin
this morning with mostly dry and stable conditions noted on water
vapor imagery. This stability filters to the surface with most of
the basin under relatively clear skies and fair conditions. With 
the Special Features low pressure area located N of Hispaniola and
Puerto Rico...the pressure gradient remains fairly weak and 
results in gentle to moderate trades. This overall wind pattern is
expected to persist through Thursday with the exception of 
occasional fresh E-SE winds across the Gulf of Honduras. 
Otherwise...little change is expected through the remainder of the

Dry and stable air aloft prevails within southwesterly flow
aloft...however a surface trough extends southward from the
Special Features low pressure area from the low to the north-
central coast near 20N71W. Low-level moisture convergence in the 
vicinity of the surface trough is generating isolated showers 
across central portions of the island that are expected to persist
through late Tuesday. As the low pressure area moves E-NE during 
the next 24 hours...conditions will trend drier Tuesday night 
into Wednesday.

The primary focus for the SW North Atlc is the Special Features
low pressure area centered on a 1005 mb low near 27N67W. A warm 
front extends E-NE from the low to 28N59W and provides much of 
the lift generating scattered showers and isolated tstms from 22N-
35N between 52W-64W. The remainder of the SW North Atlc is under 
the influence of a surface ridge axis extending from 32N75W to a 
1018 mb high centered in the east-central Gulf of Mexico near 
28N84W. Farther east across the central Atlc...a middle to upper 
level low is centered over the north-central North Atlc near 
47N38W that supports a stationary front entering the discussion 
area near 32N32W and extends to 29N43W to 31N51W. Isolated 
showers and tstms are occurring from 27N-31N between 34W-48W. The
remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence 
of a surface ridge with axis extending from N of the Canary 
Islands near 32N15W SW to 25N33W.

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 28-Mar-2017 10:27:27 UTC