Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 291806

205 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

Tropical Depression Bonnie was centered
near 33.2N 79.6W at 29/1500 UTC, and is now inland over coastal
South Carolina moving N at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with
gusts to 35 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 31N to 33N
between 79W and 82W. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                        
Tropical wave extends from 10N36W to 03N40W moving W at around
20 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 34W and
44W, and is near the leading edge of a surge of deep tropical
moisture. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 09N
between 33W and 40W.

Tropical wave extends from 14N67W to 05N67W moving W at around
15 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 64W and
70W and is embedded in moderate to high moisture. Scattered
moderate convection is from 03N to 14N between 61W and 69W.

Tropical wave extends from 15N81W to 06N82W moving W at around
15 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 79W and
86W north of 09N. Isolated moderate convection is south of 12N
and west of 77W.  

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                    
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
06N19W, where the ITCZ axis begins and extends to 04N30W to
04N40W to 02N51W. Isolated moderate convection is north of 03N
east of 10W, from 03N to 08N between 25W and 33W, and within 120
nm of the South America coast between 50W and 60W.


A weak 1020 mb high is centered near 29N89W
supporting light to gentle anticyclonic winds over the Gulf east
of 91W. Mainly moderate easterly winds are W of 91W except
moderate to fresh within 90 nm of a diurnal surface trough that
as of 1200 UTC extended from 22N92W to 18N94W. Subtropical jet
stream energy moving sw to ne over Mexico and Texas supports
isolated showers and thunderstorms north of 22N and west of 90W
over the Gulf basin. Over the next 24 hours the center of the
high will reposition over the northwestern Gulf. Generally fair
weather will continue over the basin through Mon night with
mainly gentle to moderate winds, except moderate to fresh near
the thermal trough that develops over the Yucatan in the evening
and moves westward through the morning toward Vera Cruz. 

A broad middle to upper level trough remains over the central
Caribbean today. Dry air and subsidence resides north of 12N and
west of 81W. Isolated moderate convection is under the trough
axis north of 14N between 72W and 81W. On the east side of the
trough where shear is high, clusters of showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring mainly east of 64W including the
Lesser Antilles. Diurnally enhanced afternoon and evening shower
and thunderstorm activity is occurring over the Greater
Antilles. A 1012 mb low is centered over the coast of Colombia
and is supporting isolated moderate convection within 90 nm of
the low center. Other convection over the southern Caribbean is
primarily associated with two tropical waves. Please refer to
the tropical waves section for further details. Mainly moderate
to locally fresh trade winds cover the Caribbean today. Over the
next 24 hours the middle to upper level trough is forecast to
remain nearly stationary with ongoing convection over the
central Caribbean. 

Middle to upper level trough over the region supports scattered
showers and thunderstorms over the island today. Overall
activity will diminish overnight due to the loss of daytime
heating. However, isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain
over the area due to the proximity of the trough. This trough
will continue to support enhanced shower and thunderstorm
activity into the early part of the week. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                        

Tropical Depression Bonnie has moved onshore South Carolina as
of late this morning. Please refer to the special features
section for further details. A broad middle to upper level
trough from the Bahamas to central Caribbean supports isolated
moderate convection over the southwest north Atlc between 68W
and 79W. Latest scatterometer data indicates a surface trough
has developed near 23N63W and is supporting showers and
scattered thunderstorms from 20N to 26N between 68W and 65W.
Farther east, A ridge axis covers the central and eastern Atlc
anchored by a 1024 mb high near 27N49W, and another 1025 mb high
near 28N49W. A pair of weak lows are causing weaknesses in the
ridge. The westernmost low of 1022 mb is centered near 27N35W
with a surface trough extending from 29N35W through the low
center to 25N38W. The easternmost low of 1022 mb is centered near
28N24W with a surface trough extending from 30N23W through the
low center to near 25N27W. No deep convection is noted with
these lows and troughs. A tropical wave is over the central
Atlc. Please refer to the tropical waves section for further

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Page last modified: Sunday, 29-May-2016 18:06:25 UTC