Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 230606

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
206 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0515 UTC.


As of 23/0300 UTC, a tropical wave extends from 26N91W to 17N91W 
moving NW at 10 kt. The remnant circulation of Harvey continues 
to be analyzed as a 1009 mb low pressure along the wave axis over 
the Bay of Campeche near 21N91W. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is from 15N-24N between 88W-92W. Environmental 
conditions are conducive for a tropical depression or tropical 
storm to form on Wednesday or Thursday while the low moves 
northwestward across the western Gulf of Mexico, possibly reaching
the northwestern Gulf coast on Friday. Regardless of development,
this system is likely to slow down once it reaches the coast, 
increasing the threat of a prolonged period of heavy rainfall and 
flooding across portions of Texas, southwestern Louisiana, and 
northeastern Mexico into early next week. This system could also 
produce storm surge and tropical storm or hurricane force winds 
along portions of the Texas coast later this week, and interests 
from northeastern Mexico to southwestern Louisiana should continue
to monitor its progress. A gale warning has been issued for the 
SW and west-central Gulf beginning Wednesday morning. See latest 
NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 
KNHC and the Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details. 


A tropical wave extends from 22N32W to a 1011 mb low within the 
monsoon trough located near 15N34W to 10N35W, moving W at 15-20 
kt. Satellite imagery indicates a large area of cloudiness in 
association with this wave, but convection is limited. This wave 
remains in a very moist area based on TPW imagery and has a well 
pronounced 700 mb trough.

A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean and 
extends from SW Haiti near 19N74W to N Colombia near 10N74W 
moving W at 20-25 kt. An area of showers is noted near the 
northern end of the wave axis. The wave is also producing 
scattered moderate to strong convection over northern Colombia. 
The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough, and is well depicted in 
the moisture product. 


The monsoon trough extends from 14N17W to 17N28W to 15N34W to 
08N45W to 09N53W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis 
continues from 09N53W to 09N60W. Besides the convection mentioned
in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate to strong 
convection is along the coast of W Africa from 07N-15N between 
13W-23W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-14N between 
27W-32W, and from 08N-11N between 35W-43W. 



Attention remains focused on the remnant circulation of Harvey
currently located over the Bay of Campeche. Please, see Special 
Features section for details. A gale warning has also been issued.
As of 23/0300 UTC, a surface trough extends from the Florida NE 
coast near 30N80W to S Florida to the SE Gulf of Mexico near 
25N83W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over 
the SE Gulf from 23N-26N between 80W- 84W. In the upper levels, an
upper level low is centered over the NW Gulf near 28N93W 
enhancing showers. Expect over the next 12 hours for the upper 
level low to dissipate. Also expect convection over S Florida
within the next 48 hours due to the trough. 


A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean Sea. 
Please, see Tropical Waves section for details. The most recent 
scatterometer data provide observations of fresh to locally strong
SE winds across the NW Caribbean mainly N of 20N W of 83W. 
Similar wind speeds are noted over the central Caribbean. Strong 
trade winds are forecast to pulse off the coasts of northeast 
Colombia and northwest Venezuela in the wake of the tropical wave 
currently located along 74W. A surface trough over the Atlantic 
extends to near Barbados in the Windward Islands producing 
isolated showers. Moisture associated with this trough will affect
mainly the Leeward Islands tonight and Wednesday, reaching the 
UK/US Virgin Islands by Wednesday night. This will increase the 
chance for showers with isolated tstms across the islands.


Scattered showers are observed over Haiti due to a tropical wave. 
Daytime heating, local sea breezes and mountain upslope lifting 
will continue to combine with available moisture to produce 
scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly during the afternnon 
and evening hours. 


A tropical wave is over the tropical Atlantic. Please see above. 
Isolated moderate convection is over the northern and central
Bahamas. Any development of this system during the next few days 
should be slow to occur while it drifts over Florida and the 
adjacent waters. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 
31N63W to 26N67W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
trough. Another surface trough extends from 27N58W to 20N56W to
Barbados near 13N59W. Scattered moderate convection is from 24N-
28N between 54W-56W. A 1021 mb high is centered over the central 
Atlantic near 33N48W. An upper-level low is also centered near 

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 23-Aug-2017 06:07:16 UTC