863 AXNT20 KNHC 020501 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Jul 2 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0455 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A new tropical wave has been introduced in the eastern Atlantic along 21W, south of 15N, based on total precipitable water and wave guidance data. The wave is moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 07N to 13N and east of 30W. Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 37W, south of 14N, moving westward around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 11N and between 33W and 43W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 46W, south of 16.5N, moving westward at around 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 64W, south of 16N, moving westward around 10 kt. The wave is enhancing the showers activity over central Venezuela. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W, south of 19N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present in the SW Caribbean, also affecting southern Central America. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W to 10N28W and to 08N40W. The ITCZ extends from 08N40W to 05N47W and then from 04N49W to NE Brazil. Please see the Tropical Waves section above for details on the convection near the monsoon trough and ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The remnants of Barry continue to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over NE Mexico and southern Texas and some of the convection extends into the western Gulf waters. Meanwhile, a few showers are seen in the eastern Bay of Campeche and the eastern Gulf waters. A subtropical ridge near Bermuda extends westward into the Gulf, supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 25N and west of 88W. However, stronger winds are likely near the strongest convection. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft (1-1.5 m). Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, weak high pressure over the central Gulf will persist through Wed, before a weak cold front sinks slowly southward across north Florida and into the adjacent NE Gulf waters Thu night through Fri. The front is forecast to stall then meander across the NE Gulf through the weekend. Low pressure may form along this decaying boundary near the Florida coast this weekend. Although significant development is not anticipated, this low could organize into a tropical or subtropical depression by the start of next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A subtropical ridge near Bermuda extends into the Caribbean Sea. The tight pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean according to a recent scatterometer satellite pass. These winds are supporting rough seas in these waters, peaking around 13 ft (4 m). The strongest winds and seas are found off northern Colombia. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds and moderate seas are noted in the north-central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are prevalent in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are evident. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure across NW Colombia and the SW Caribbean will support fresh to strong trades and rough seas across most of the central through Fri. Winds and seas will diminish over the upcoming weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper trough remains situated over the western Atlantic, off the coast of Georgia. Associated divergence aloft is supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms west of 72W. The rest of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is dominated by a subtropical ridge near Bermuda. Recent scatterometer satellite data indicate that strong to locally near gale-force easterly winds are occurring off northern Hispaniola and at the entrance of the Windward Passage. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft (1.5-2 m). Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are noted south of 25N and west of 55W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are found west of 70W and north of 25N. Farther east, another upper level trough located in the central Atlantic is producing scattered showers from 18N to 24N and between 47W and 55W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a 1031 mb high pressure system positioned just north of the Azores. The pressure gradient between this system and lower pressures in NW Africa sustain strong to near gale-force N-NE winds north of 19N and east of 25W. The strongest winds are found in the waters passages between the Canary Islands. Seas in these waters are 7-9 ft (2.5-3 m). Moderate to fresh NE-E winds and moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere south of 27N and between 25W and 55W. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the west of 55W, the Bermuda High is expected to maintain a ridge W to E along about 30N through Wed, then begin to drift eastward and weaken modestly through late week. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail S of 24N through Thu. Fresh to locally strong E winds will pulse from late afternoon into the overnight hours N of Hispaniola through late week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere. A weak cold front is forecast to move off the SE U.S. coast and into the NW zones early Fri, then stall there through Sun. Low pressure may form along the front during this time. Although significant development is not anticipated, this low could organize into a tropical or subtropical depression by the start of next week. $$ Delgado
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