Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 271721

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
120 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.


A tropical wave has its axis just off the Africa coast along 17W 
from 10N to 20N and is moving west at 10-15 kt.  Scattered 
moderate convection is located up to three degrees either side 
of the wave axis.  

A tropical wave has its axis along 32W from 02N to 11N and is 
moving west at 15 kt.  Visible satellite imagery shows a Saharan 
dry air layer and dust in the vicinity of the wave.  Scattered 
moderate to strong convection is located within 2 to 3 degrees 
either side of the wave axis.  

A tropical wave has its axis from 14N53W to 05N56W and is moving 
west at 15 kt.  The wave is easily identifiable on visible 
satellite imagery with scattered showers and thunderstorms 
mainly west of the wave axis from 08N to 13N between 55W 
and 61W.  

A tropical wave is located over the west central Caribbean with 
the axis along 78W from 09N to 20N and is moving west at 15 kt. 
This wave is also evident in visible satellite imagery with 
scattered showers and thunderstorms south of 14N west of 80W 
into Central America and from 15N to 19N between 75W and 82W. 

A tropical wave is located over the Yucatan Peninsula and 
Central America with the axis along 89W from 10N to 22N and 
moving west at about 10 kt.  Isolated moderate convection is 
observed mainly over Belize. 


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 21N17W 
southwest to near 09N29W.  The Intertropical Convergence Zone is 
located from 06N34W to 10N50W.  Isolated moderate convection is 
located up to 180 nm either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ.



Difluent flow aloft over the western half of the gulf is 
supporting scattered shower and thunderstorm development north 
of 24N west of 90W.  A 1011 mb low is located along the lower 
Texas coast with a trough located from the upper Texas coast to 
near 24N98W.  A stationary front is analyzed from 30N80W to 
29N90W.  Isolated showers and thunderstorm are noted along and 
up to 2 degrees north of the front.  This frontal boundary is 
forecast to gradually become diffuse through the afternoon and 
evening hours.  A surface trough is located in the eastern Bay 
of Campeche. 


The main features in the basin are two tropical waves already 
discussed in the section above.  Winds are expected to increase 
to near gale across the Gulf of Venezuela tomorrow and Thursday.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing over the 
Windward Passage, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba mostly related to 
the tropical wave.  Another tropical wave is expected to enter 
the eastern Caribbean on Tuesday night into Wednesday.  This 
wave will be accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms, 
some of which may contain gusty winds.  Broad anticyclonic flow 
aloft covers the eastern two-thirds of the Caribbean.


Upper-level westerly winds are advecting deep level moisture 
over the island and surrounding waters early this afternoon.
Expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through the 
next 24 hours.


Broad anticyclonic aloft covers the Atlantic west of about 65W. 
A well-defined middle/upper level cyclonic circulation is 
located in the central Atlantic near 27N56W and is nearly 
stationary.  The circulation is about 12 degrees in diameter and 
is forecast to drift north and gradually weaken.  Moving 
downstream, another middle/upper level cyclonic circulation is 
centered near 29N29W and is moving slowly west.  A trough 
extends from the circulation southwest to near 12N36W.  A 
stationary front extends through 32N79W to just south of 
Jacksonville, Florida.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms are 
located north of 29N between 72W and 80W and are moving east. 
Surface high pressure covers the area north of 18N between 20W 
and 70W.

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 27-Jun-2017 17:21:40 UTC