Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 162356

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
655 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2345 UTC.


...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A strong arctic cold front has moved into the NW Gulf of Mexico. 
As of 2100 UTC, the front extends from near 30N87W to 25N98W. 
Gusty winds to gale-force are noted behind the front along the 
coast of Texas and coastal waters. The front will quickly move
southeast exiting the area early on Wednesday. Cold arctic 
offshore northerly flow behind the front will bring near gale- 
force winds with frequent gusts to gale-force over the northwest 
Gulf tonight, and gale-force northerly winds near Tampico and 
Veracruz tonight through early on Wed. A Gale Warning is in 
effect for the western Gulf waters while many winter storm 
warnings have been issued along the northern Gulf states.

Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO 
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, and the latest NHC Offshore 
Waters Forecast, MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, for more details.


The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 06N10W to
03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W to 00N32W to 00N50W. 
Scattered moderate convection is observed within 100 nm of the
ITCZ between 35W-50W.



A strong arctic cold front has moved into the NW Gulf. See the 
Special Features section for more details. A ridge dominates the 
remainder of the Gulf waters, and will shift eastward and weaken 
tonight. Fresh to locally strong northeast winds are noted over 
the southeast waters and the Straits of Florida per scatterometer 
data while mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere ahead
of the front.


A stationary front remains across the western portion of the basin
extending from 20N78W to 12N83W. An area of scattered showers and
thunderstorms is noted along and west of the front affecting Central
America and central and western Cuba. Patches of low-level 
moisture embedded in the trade wind flow are seen across the 
remainder of the Caribbean Sea east of the front. Scatterometer 
data depicts fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front, 
and moderate to fresh trade winds east of the frontal boundary, 
with the exception of fresh to strong winds near the coast of 
Colombia. The front will weaken and dissipate by tomorrow 
morning. Moisture associated with the remnants of the front will 
drift westward on Wednesday, keeping showers possible over 
Central America and the northwest Caribbean. Strong north winds 
along the coast of Nicaragua will slowly diminish to moderate this
evening through Fri night. Otherwise, strong winds will pulse 
near the NW Colombia coast each night through Saturday night. 
Large northeast swell will maintain seas above 8 ft in the 
tropical Atlantic waters this evening. 


Relatively dry weather with partly cloudy skies and isolated 
showers will prevail for the next couple of days over the island 
due to the influence of a ridge. A surface trough passing north 
of Puerto Rico will produce little convection. Computer models 
show increasing moisture across the island toward the end of the 
work week as a cold front approaches from the west.


A stationary front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N67W to
22N77W. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are still noted 
in the wake of the front. These winds will gradually diminish 
today as the front begins to weaken. To the east, a weak 1018 mb 
low is centered near 27N65W with a trough extending from it to 
31N64W. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of these 
features. Scattered moderate convection has developed to the north
of 27N between 57W-63W ahead of a cold front to the north of the 
area. An upper level low is reflected at the surface as a trough 
that extends from 31N44W to 26N45W. Scattered moderate convection 
prevails along the trough between 39W-45W. The trough will drift 
westward over the next 24 hours while the strong high pressure 
will move eastward. Strong high pressure of 1038 mb located near 
Azores at 40N30W dominates the remainder of the ocean to Africa.
A strong cold front will move off the southeast United States 
coast on Wednesday, then weaken as it reaches from near 24N65W to
the Windward Passage by Friday morning. Strong high pressure in 
the wake of the front will bring strong northerly winds and 
building seas over the northern of the Bahamas on Thursday.

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 16-Jan-2018 23:56:16 UTC