Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 190631 RRA

Tropical Weather Discussion...retransmitted
rrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1232 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

A developing area of low pressure analyzed currently as a 1000 
mb low centered near 38N64W is forecast to strengthen during the 
next 24 hours while moving eastward. The associated cold front 
extends from the low center to 34N70W to the South Carolina 
coast near 33N79W and is expected to extend into the SW North 
Atlc waters  generating near gale to gale force SW to W winds 
generally N of 29N between the front and 60W. See latest NWS 
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC 
for more details.

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to 
04N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 04N20W 
to 01N40W to the Equator near 43W. Scattered moderate convection 
is S of 05N between 26W-51W.


A middle to upper level ridge is noted on water vapor imagery 
over much of the Gulf basin this evening with axis along 86W. To 
the west of the ridge axis...southwesterly flow aloft prevails 
between the ridging and an approaching middle to upper level 
trough with axis currently over western Texas and NW Mexico. The 
troughing supports a weak area of low pressure across Texas and 
a stationary front extending from Galveston Bay S-SW to the 
coast of Mexico near Tampico. Scattered showers and isolated 
tstms are occurring across portions of the NW Gulf N of 23N W of 
92W...including interior portions of Louisiana and SE Texas. The 
front is expected to become diffuse through Friday as surface 
ridging remains anchored to the east across the Florida 
peninsula and Bahamas. The next cold front is forecast to emerge 
off the Texas and Louisiana coasts Saturday night late into 

Tranquil conditions prevail across the basin this evening. Much 
of the quiet weather is due in large part to N-NW flow aloft... 
strong subsidence...and dry air as noted on water vapor imagery. 
Moderate to occasional fresh trades are depicted on recent
scatterometer data...with slightly higher trades occurring within
close proximity to the coast of Colombia. This overall synoptic
pattern is expected to persist as high pressure will remain
anchored to the N across the SW North Atlc through Saturday. The
next significant cold front is expected to enter the NW Caribbean
Sunday night late into Monday shifting winds northerly across the
western Caribbean early next week.

Moderate NE winds prevail across the island and adjacent coastal 
waters this evening. Winds will diminish slightly through the 
next 24-36 hours as the pressure gradient weakens and high
pressure anchored to the N of the island across the SE Bahamas.

A middle to upper level shortwave trough is noted on water vapor
imagery in the vicinity of 34N68W that supports the Special
Features low pressure area and associated cold front. Aside from
the developing gale force winds...scattered showers and tstms are
occurring N of 28N between 56W-71W. Otherwise...the remainder of
the SW North Atlc waters are under the influence of a surface
ridge anchored by a 1021 mb high centered across the NW Bahamas.
Farther east...another middle to upper level trough axis extends
from 31N45W SW to 14N61W and support a cold front analyzed from
32N29W to 29N34W that becomes stationary to 26N50W to 26N58W.
Isolated showers are occurring within 90 nm either side of the
front. The weak front bridges between two high pressure areas...
one a 1022 mb high centered near 32N37W and the second a 1024 mb
high centered near 33N21W. Finally...a surface trough remains
analyzed SE of the Windward Islands from 07N58W to 13N57W
providing focus for scattered showers and isolated tstms within
240 nm either side of a line from 07N60W to 20N43W.

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Page last modified: Thursday, 19-Jan-2017 06:31:49 UTC