Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 260557

205 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.


Tropical wave over Africa extends from 5N12W to 14N8W moving
west-northwest 10 to 15 kt. Wave is in the vicinity of a 700 mb
trough and is embedded within an area of deep moisture.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 75/90
NM of the trough axis north of 6N to inland over west Africa. 

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from
2N40W to 12N38W moving west-northwest near 15 kt. Wave coincides
with a lowly amplified 700 mb trough and along the leading edge
of a low amplitude area of deep moisture. Any convection in the
vicinity is associated with the ITCZ not the tropical wave. 

Tropical wave is inland over South America along 63W/64W south
of 11N moving west near 15 kt. Wave is in the vicinity of a 700
mb trough and is embedded within an area of deep moisture. No
associated deep convection. 

Tropical wave in the southwest Caribbean extends along 79W south
of 17N across Panama into the east Pacific region moving west
less than 5 kt. Wave is west of a 700 mb trough and is embedded
within a low amplitude area of deep moisture. Any convection in
the vicinity is associated with the upper trough not the
tropical wave.  


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of west Africa near
9N13W into the east Tropical Atlantic along 6N17W to 5N21W where
the ITCZ begins and continues along 5N28W to the tropical wave
near 6N36W then resumes west of the wave near 5N41W to South
America near 4N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 5N-10N between 44W-51W. Clusters of scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection are within 90 nm of the
monsoon trough between 16W-21W. Clusters of scattered moderate
convection are from 2N-10N between 27W-51W.



A broad upper ridge anchored in the east Pacific region extends
across Mexico into the Gulf of Mexico near Tampico to over the
southeast CONUS near the central Louisiana while an upper trough
covers the far east Gulf of Mexico across Florida into the west
Atlantic. This is giving the Gulf northwest flow aloft. The
upper ridge is advecting moisture across the far west Gulf
generating numerous showers/scattered thunderstorms inland over
Mexico and south Texas with scattered showers in the Gulf waters
from 23N-28N west of 96W. A seabreeze surface trough has moved
across the Florida peninsula into the far east Gulf generating
isolated showers/thunderstorms within 45 NM of line from the
Lower Florida Keys to 27N84W. Otherwise, a surface ridge extends
from the west Atlantic across northeast Florida to the
Texas/Mexico border. The surface ridge will persist into the
weekend meandering slightly. 


A highly amplified upper trough extends from the west Atlantic
across central Cuba over the west Caribbean covering the area
west of 73W while an upper ridge extends from over South America
across the Lesser Antilles into the west-central Atlantic
covering the remainder of the Caribbean basin. The upper trough
is generating scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms north of
18N to over Hispaniola, Cuba, and Jamaica between 68W-77W and
south of 14N to over Colombia between 70W-77W. Isolated showers/
thunderstorms are north of 17N to over Jamaica and Cuba between
77W-84W and south of 13N to the coast of Panama between 77W-82W.
The tropical wave along 79W has become difficult to locate as it
is interacting with the upper trough that covers the west
Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong trade winds will diminish
across the basin late Thursday. Broad surface low will develop
over the southwest Caribbean on Friday and Saturday. 


Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms are across the island
tonight. The upper trough currently over central Cuba and the
western Caribbean will broaden starting Friday night as the low
and surface trough in the west Atlantic shifts westward.
Lingering moisture and daytime heating could still generate
showers and possible thunderstorms through Saturday.


A surface ridge covers the far west Atlantic anchored by a 1024
mb high near 32N75W and extending a ridge axis across northeast
Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. An upper trough covers the west
Atlantic supporting a surface trough that extends from 29N67W
through a weak 1016 mb low near 26N68W to 23N69W. The upper
trough is generating scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms
from the Bahamas to over Cuba between 73W-79W. An upper ridge is
to the east extending from over South America across the Lesser
Antilles and into the west-central Atlantic along 24N62W to
beyond 32N55W. This is creating a diffluent environment over a
portion of the west Atlantic generating scattered showers and
possible isolated thunderstorms within 150/175 NM of line from
Hispaniola near 20N71W to 31N65W. The remainder of the Atlantic
is dominated by a broad surface ridge anchored by a 1029 mb high
near 36N48W. The west Atlantic surface trough will move
northwest with the low reaching 28N74W Thursday, 28N75W Friday,
then approaching the southeast CONUS Saturday and Sunday while
dragging the surface trough through the Bahamas reaching the
southeast Florida coast Saturday night. 

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Page last modified: Thursday, 26-May-2016 05:58:00 UTC