000
AXNT20 KNHC 131017
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Jul 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W-35W, south of 18N,
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
ahead of this wave, from 03.5N to 10.5N between 34W and 39W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 49W, south of 18N,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 03N to 12N and between 42W and 50W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 86W, south of 20N, 
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is found south of 17N between 82W and 89W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Mauritania near 18N16W, continuing southwestward to 11N22W to
10N31W to 1014 mb low pres near 11N43W to 12N47W. Associated 
convection is described above with the tropical waves.

...GULF OF AMERICA... 

A nearly stationary upper level low over the NW Gulf continues to
provide unstable conditions across most of the northern half of 
the Gulf this morning, where widely scattered showers dot the Gulf
waters north of 25N. A broad subtropical ridge reaches across 
central Florida and extends northwestward across the NE Gulf of 
America, resulting in moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds and 
seas of 3-4 ft across the SW half of the basin. Elsewhere, 
moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail in the rest of 
the basin.

For the forecast, weak high pressure across the NE Gulf this 
morning will drift slowly westward and into the NW Gulf by Wed. 
This will allow a broad area of low pressure expected to form 
across the Atlantic east of Florida, to shift westward across 
Florida and into the eastern Gulf on Tue, then continue to drift 
westward into the central Gulf through Thu, accompanied by active 
weather. Environmental conditions could become marginally 
conducive for the gradual development of this system by mid to 
late next week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...
 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen across the SW
Caribbean south of 12N, about the monsoon trough, and behind a
tropical wave moving into Central America. No other significant 
convection is noted across the basin, as Saharan Air generally 
prevails east of 77W. A broad subtropical ridge over the central 
Atlantic extends westward along 30N to near 70W and then west-
southwestward into central Florida, supporting strong easterly 
trade winds in the south-central Caribbean. Seas in these waters 
are 8-10 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and 
moderate seas are found elsewhere south of 20N. In the rest of the
NW Caribbean, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate 
seas prevail.

For the forecast, weak Atlantic high pressure along 69W will 
shift NE and collapse today, leaving a weak Atlantic ridge east of
75W through Mon. High pressure will then build westward across 
the region and into Florida Tue through Thu. This pattern will 
continue to support pulsing fresh to strong trades and rough seas 
across the south-central Caribbean through early Tue then expand 
across much of the central basin late Tue through Thu. Fresh E 
winds are expected across the Gulf of Honduras through Tue, 
pulsing to locally strong tonight. Moderate to fresh winds and 
moderate seas are expected in the eastern Caribbean through Tue 
while gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will 
prevail NW portions. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An expansive subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic is
centered on a 1025 mb high near 30N38W, and dominates the 
tropical Atlantic waters between 20W and the Bahamas. A broad 
upper level low is noted between Bermuda and Hispaniola, 
sustaining a few clusters of scattered showers and thunderstorms
north of 21N between 62W and the Bahamas. Overnight satellite
scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh easterly winds south 
of 25N and between 25W and 65W, and south of 23N west of 65W. 
Seas across the trade wind zone east of 65W are 4-7 ft, and 2-4 ft
west of 65W. A tighter pressure gradient in the eastern Atlantic 
is forcing fresh to locally strong N-NE winds north of 19N and 
east of 25W, where seas are 6-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, 1020 mb Atlantic high pressure near
29N69W will shift NE and collapse today, leaving a weak Atlantic 
ridge along 30N and east of 75W through Mon. High pressure will 
then build westward across the region and into Florida Tue through
Thu. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the 
next few days offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast, and build 
into the waters north of the Bahamas. This system is expected to 
move generally westward across the Florida Peninsula Mon and over 
the eastern and north-central portion of the Gulf of America Tue 
through Wed. Active weather is expected over the waters west of 
75W today through Tue associated with this system. The pressure 
gradient between the Atlantic ridge building westward and the area
of low pressure will support moderate to fresh SE to S winds 
across the Bahamas and through the NW zones Tue through early Thu.

$$
Stripling