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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 262353
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
805 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A COLD FRONT IS OFF THE TEXAS 
AND LOUISIANA COASTS AND WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE 
GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE 
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE BY 1200 UTC FRIDAY 
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF WATERS S OF 21N W OF 95W. SEE 
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS 
ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR 31N11W. METEO FRANCE HAS ISSUED 
A BEAUFORT SCALE 8 OR FRESH GALE FOR MARINE AREA AGADIR. SEE 
LATEST METEO FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER INTERNET ADDRESS 
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 8N13W TO  
0N16W TO 3S23W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 3S23W TO 3S30W TO THE 
SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 4S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 1N-3S BETWEEN 11W-16W DUE TO MONSOON FLOW. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 2S-6S BETWEEN 24W-30W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...    

AS OF 2100 UTC A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO 
EXTENDING FROM S LOUISIANA AT 29N92W TO NE MEXICO AT 24N98W. 20-
25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF FRONT. A PREFRONTAL SURFACE 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 
N OF TAMPICO MEXICO AT 22N98W. 10 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF 
TROUGH. A SQUALL LINE IS OVER THE NE GULF EXTENDING FROM N 
FLORIDA AT 29N83W TO 26N86W TO 27N90W. PRESENTLY SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 26N BETWEEN 85W-
92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COLD 
FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 5-10 
KT SOUTHERLY HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W SUPPORTING THE 
FRONTAL SYSTEM. A RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N. SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE S GULF S OF 
26N TO INCLUDE CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT IN 24 
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM TAMPA FLORIDA AT 28N83W 
TO THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 21N90W WITH CONVECTION AND 
SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...A GALE IS FORECAST FOR THE SW GULF ON 
1200 UTC FRIDAY. SEE ABOVE. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST 
WIND ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS S OF CUBA.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E 
OF 78W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER W PUERTO 
RICO. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA 
BETWEEN 77W-80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 75W. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR 
CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND N GUATEMALA DUE 
TO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                                
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER 
HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPRESSING THE FORMATION 
OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 36N58W. A 
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N42W 
TO 24N50W TO 22N60W TO 25N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 90 NM S OF FRONT E OF 50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
60 NM S OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A 1031 MB HIGH IS 
CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 38N18W. SURFACE RIDGING IS 
OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 38W. IN THE TROPICS SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE E OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N-18N 
BETWEEN 50W-60W MOVING W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN 40W-
60W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS 
FOR THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 31N35W TO 25N40W WITH SHOWERS AND 
CONVECTION.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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Page last modified: Thursday, 26-Mar-2015 23:53:44 UTC