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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 270605
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA 
NEAR 11N15W...TO 7N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N20W TO 6N26W 
7N40W 7N48W...TO THE COAST OF SURINAME NEAR 6N56W. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 
10N BETWEEN 32W AND 40W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 4N9W 
4N14W 5N18W 6N21W AND 7N31W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 5N 
TO 12N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.  

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S.A....BEYOND 
THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF GEORGIA AND ALABAMA...INTO THE CENTRAL 
GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES 
THROUGH 32N73W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND IN 
THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH CUBA NEAR 22N80W...INTO EASTERN SECTIONS 
OF HONDURAS...CURVING THROUGH EL SALVADOR...INTO SOUTHERN 
SECTIONS OF GUATEMALA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS 
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...VERYWHERE EXCEPT IN THE 
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 14N NORTHWARD FROM THE 
WINDWARD PASSAGE WESTWARD...IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM TO THE WEST OF 
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W IN THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN...27N74W... 22N78W AT THE COAST OF CUBA. STRATIFORM CLOUDS 
ARE FROM 24N SOUTHWARD.  

STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE 
EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 
25N93W...TO COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 19N96W...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC 
OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION... 
MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. 

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N 
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

NO LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THIS TIME.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF 
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

NO LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THIS TIME.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
BETWEEN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF CUBA AND JAMAICA. 
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY IN A LARGE PART OF THE AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE COVER THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER...TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE 
LINE THAT RUNS FROM NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA-TO-THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA NEAR 10N...AND IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 

A COLD FRONT CUTS ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH 
CUBA NEAR 22N80W...INTO EASTERN SECTIONS OF HONDURAS...CURVING 
THROUGH EL SALVADOR...INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF GUATEMALA. 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 14N NORTHWARD 
FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WESTWARD.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 70W EASTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA. 

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA...BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. IT IS MOVING ON TOP 
OF MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS NEAR 15N74W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 
26/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND 
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.15 IN 
GUADELOUPE...AND 0.15 IN HAVANA IN CUBA. 

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 5N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N81W IN 
COASTAL PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN 
PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN 
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE SOUTHWEST 
OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 12N83W TO 12N80W TO 11N76W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS 
MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE PAST HAITI. MIDDLE LEVEL TO 
UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW IS REACHING HISPANIOLA 
FROM THE NORTHEAST.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN 
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO LA 
ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN 
SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW 
WITH A TROUGH WILL REACH HISPANIOLA FOR ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE 
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN WESTERLY WIND FLOW 
FLOW UNTIL THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL 
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH 
HISPANIOLA. HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF A TROUGH TO THE 
EAST AND A RIDGE TO THE WEST. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB 
SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
ON TOP OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW 
CROSSES HISPANIOLA. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN FROM CUBA AND HISPANIOLA NORTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD AND 
IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 70W 
WESTWARD.  

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
NEAR 20N48W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER 
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 
60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 44W/45W FROM 16N TO 22N. 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
WITHIN 240 NM TO 360 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE 17N45W 19N45W 
21N46W 22N48W 21N50W 23N53W.

ONE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER 
THAT IS NEAR 35N44W...THROUGH 33N55W TO 29N62W 27N70W...TO 
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. A SECOND RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SAME 1032 MB 
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...TO 30N30W 26N21W...AND TO THE SOUTHERN 
SECTIONS OF THE WESTERN SAHARA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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Page last modified: Thursday, 27-Nov-2014 06:05:13 UTC