Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 271800

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1745 UTC.


A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlc with axis extending from 
08N24W to 02N24W, moving W at 10 kt. CIRA LPW imagery shows a 
moderate moist environment in the vicinity of the wave where wind
shear shows to be favorable. This along with upper level
diffluence support scattered showers from 03N-10N between 14W-28W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from 
09N36W to 01N37W, moving W at 10 kt. CIRA LPW imagery shows a 
moderate moist environment, however Saharan dry air and dust as
well as unfavorable wind shear hinder convection at the time.

A tropical wave is in the W Atlc with axis extending 
from 12N49W to 03N50W, moving W at 15 kt. CIRA LPW imagery shows
dry air ahead of the wave that along with unfavorable wind shear
hinder convection at the time.

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis extending from 
18N62W to 10N64W, moving W at 15-20 kt. Unfavorable wind shear 
and Saharan dry air across the wave environment is hindering 
convection at this time.


The Monsoon Trough enters the tropical Atlantic near 10N14W and 
continues to 05N23W. The ITCZ extends from 05N26W to 04N35W, then
resumes W of a tropical wave near 03N39W and continues to 0N50W. Besides
the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered 
moderate convection is from 10N-15N between 52W-60W. 



A 1019 mb high pressure center is located over NW adjacent waters
of Tampa near 28N84W supporting light to gentle winds across most
of the basin, except W of 91W where moderate return flow 
dominates. A thermal trough will develop over the Yucatan 
Peninsula during the evenings, move west across the SW Gulf 
during the overnight hours and dissipate near 94W by late each 
morning through Monday. A surge of fresh to locally strong winds 
will follow the trough. Little change in this weather pattern is 
expected through Monday.


A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean, however it lacks
convection due to deep layer dry air and unfavorable wind shear. 
See tropical waves section. This same environment is across the
remainder basin, except in the SW Caribbean where favorable wind
shear, abundant moisture and upper level divergence support
scattered moderate convection S of 13N between 75W and 83W. Otherwise,
high pressure over the central Atlantic extends a ridge SW across
the northern Caribbean Sea, which supports fresh to strong 
easterly winds across the south-central Caribbean between 74W and
77W. Gentle to moderate trades are elsewhere. The strong winds in
this region are expected to continue through early next week. 
Pulsing fresh to strong E to SE winds are expected over the Gulf 
of Honduras tonight. Moderate to locally fresh trades are 
expected elsewhere. Saharan dry air and dust continue to move 
across the basin as seen in enhanced satellite imagery. This dust 
continue to be reported in the Lesser Antilles, Hispaniola and
Jamaica while hazy conditions are being reported across Central


Saharan dust continue to be reported across the Island and is
observed in satellite enhanced imagery. Water vapor imagery show
strong subsidence over the Island as well, which is hindering 
convection at the moment. However, patches of low level moisture, 
embedded in the trade wind flow, could bring some cloudiness and 
isolated showers, particularly late today into Sunday.


A cold front in the SW N Atlc extends along 30N63W to 28N71W to 
25N77W with scattered showers and tstms within 90 nm ahead of it.
West of the front, a 1019 mb center of high pressure developed
near 29N79W, which is expected to dissipate by Sunday morning. A 
broad surface ridge dominates the remainder Atlc waters being 
anchored by a 1024 mb high near 30N48W, which is expected to move
SE to near 27N41W by Sunday morning. Three tropical waves are 
located over the tropical Atlantic between the west coast of 
Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical Waves
section for more details. Saharan dry and dust is noted across 
much of the Atlantic Ocean. A new cold front will dip into the 
central Atlc between 25W-40W tonight. 

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Page last modified: Saturday, 27-May-2017 18:01:11 UTC