000
AXNT20 KNHC 101022
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri May 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1015 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes along the coast of northwest
Senegal near 17N16W, and continues southwestward to 07N23W, where 
overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the
ITCZ and continues to 04N31W to 03N39W and to the coast of Brazil
near 01S47W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
seen within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 30W-37W, and also 
south of the trough from 02N to 07N east of 24W to the coast 
of Africa. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north 
of the ITCZ between 26W-30W, and within 180 nm either side of the 
ITCZ between 37W-43W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure ridging extends westward across central Florida and 
to the eastern Gulf. A trough is over the NW Gulf from near
29N93W to just east of Brownsville, Texas. No significant 
convection is currently occurring with this trough. A frontal 
system is moving east-southeastward across eastern Texas. 
Numerous thunderstorms containing frequent lightning are moving 
eastward across the southeastern U.S. Some of this activity is 
reaching the coastal waters of the western Florida panhandle. 
Latest ASCAT data and buoy observations generally reveal gentle to
moderate southeast winds over the Gulf, except for light to 
gentle southeast to south winds over the eastern half of the Gulf.
The exception is just north of the Yucatan Peninsula, where fresh
southeast winds are present. Both buoy observations and overnight
altimeter satellite data passes indicate seas in the range of 2 
to 4 ft in the eastern Gulf and seas of 3 to 5 ft over the basin, 
except for slightly higher seas of 4 to 6 ft over the central and 
SW Gulf sections. 

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure ridging will shift southward 
through Sat in response to a cold front that will be moving into 
the far NW Gulf this morning. Ahead of the front, a trough extends
from 29N92W to 26N97W. Gentle to moderate southeast winds are 
over the Gulf, except for light to gentle southeast to south winds
are over the eastern Gulf. The cold front will move southeastward
across the basin, reaching from near southeastern Louisiana to 
South Texas by Fri afternoon, from near Fort Myers, Florida to the
NE Mexico and South Texas border by early Sat, then stall from 
the Straits of Florida to South Texas on Sun, then gradually 
weaken with its remnants lifting back north as a warm front 
through Tue. Moderate to locally fresh northeast winds will follow
the front into Sat evening. Haze due to agricultural fires in 
southeastern Mexico continues across most of the western Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A rather weak pressure gradient is over the basin. Partial 
overnight ASCAT data shows gentle to moderate trade winds over 
most of the basin, with the exceptions of winds of fresh speeds 
over the extreme southeastern section of the sea, and fresh to 
strong east to southeast winds just north of Honduras. Seas are in
the range of 3 to 5 ft, except for higher seas of 6 to 8 ft near 
the Gulf of Honduras and lower seas of 3 to 4 ft over a few 
sections of the central Caribbean. 

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted south of 13N between
Colombia 80W. Isolated showers are possible over the eastern 
Caribbean. 

For the forecast, the high pressure ridging will slowly shift 
eastward through the weekend. The associated gradient will support
moderate to fresh trade winds over the south-central and 
southeastern Caribbean through the weekend. Winds may increase 
some early next week. Meanwhile, fresh to locally strong east 
winds will pulse primarily at night across the Gulf of Honduras 
through Sun. Looking ahead, expect fresh to strong southeast winds
over the northwestern Caribbean and south-central Caribbean off 
Colombia early next week, between the high pressure over the 
western Atlantic and lowering pressure across the southwestern 
Gulf of Mexico and over Colombia. These winds may pulse to near 
gale fore over or near the Gulf of Honduras by Tue night. Gentle 
to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Relatively weak high pressure is present over the central and
western Atlantic. A 1017 mb high center is analyzed at 29N60W.
A pair of troughs are analyzed at 06Z: One extends from near 
28N57W to 19N62W, and the other from 21N51W to 12N56W. The
first trough is underneath a broad mid to upper-level trough 
that is observed on satellite water vapor imagery to be north of 
14N between 48W and 70W. The second trough is under the upper- 
level divergence side of the trough. An ASCAT pass over the
first trough nicely showed the wind northeast to southeast wind
shift across its axis. Increasing scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms are seen from 18N to 21N between 48W and the second 
trough. Isolated showers are elsewhere from 18N to 29N between 50W
and 60W. Similar activity is north of 28N between 70W and 75W. 
Overnight ASCAT data passes revealed gentle to moderate 
anticyclonic winds west of about 55W, with the exception of fresh 
south to southwest winds north of 27N between 69W and 80W, and
moderate southeast winds east of the first tough to near 55W as 
seen in the ASCAT pass. Seas with these winds are 4 to 6 ft. 
Slightly higher seas to 7 ft are just north of the area between 
71W and 77W. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds are east of 55W to
the coast of Africa, except for light to gentle winds from 23N to
31N between 47W and 55W. The fresh winds are confined over the 
eastern Atlantic north of 13N and east of 40W. Seas with these 
winds are in the range 5 to 7 ft, with the exception of an area 
of 6 to 8 ft seas that exists from 14N to 18N between 29W and 
40W. These seas are due to N swell. They are forecast to subside 
by early Sat as the swell decays.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned high pressure ridge
will slowly shift eastward-southeastward through Sat, ahead of a 
cold front that will approach from the northwest. Expect fresh to 
strong south to southwest winds ahead of the front tonight through
late Fri between the northern Bahamas and Bermuda. The front is 
expected to move off the northeast Florida coast Fri night, then 
weaken as it moves east reaching from near Bermuda to the central 
Bahamas by late Sat night. Winds and seas will diminish into Mon 
as the dissipating front continues to drift east of the area, and 
high pressure builds between the Carolinas and Bermuda in the wake
of front. Looking ahead, southeast winds will increase and seas 
will build late Mon through Tue night off northeast Florida and 
north of the Bahamas, as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead 
of the next weak front that is expected to move across the 
southeastern United States. 

$$
Aguirre