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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 302348
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N30W TO 20N26W MOVING W AT 10-15 
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT BETWEEN 
23W-34W AND MAXIMUM MOISTURE VALUES ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATERS 
IMAGERY FROM 06N-16N BETWEEN 25W-31W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-12N BETWEEN 28W-34W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N47W TO 18N45W MOVING W AT 15 KT. 
THE WAVE HAS MOVED WEST OF A 1010 MB LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 
MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N43W WITH CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-
LEVEL CLOUD FIELD NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS IN THE VICINITY OF 
14N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 
41W-46W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N59W TO 19N55W MOVING W AT 15 KT. 
THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD 700 MB TROUGH ALOFT 
BETWEEN 50W-60W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH 
THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N88W TO 22N85W MOVING W AT 20-25 
KT. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE WAVE NOTED ACROSS THE BASIN...IT 
COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WINDWARD 
PASSAGE REGION NEAR 20N74W TO SOUTHERN BELIZE NEAR 16N89W. MOST 
OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS 
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN 
81W-87W...WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 12N-
22N BETWEEN 78W-92W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 
09N32W TO A 1012 LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N43W TO 08N48W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N48W TO 
06N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 
34W-40W.

...DISCUSSION... 

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED OVER THE WESTERN GULF 
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION THIS EVENING BETWEEN 
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 28N90W AND 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL 
PLAINS TO BASE OVER THE TEXAS BIG BEND REGION NEAR 29N101W. 
MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT ALONG WITH S-SE RETURN FLOW AT THE 
SURFACE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE ACROSS THE BASIN IS 
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NW OF A LINE FROM THE 
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR TUXPAN... 
INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER 
VALLEY... AND ALABAMA THIS EVENING. FARTHER SOUTHEAST...A 
TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA INCLUDING 
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL REGION. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOCUS 
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 23N BETWEEN 84W-
91W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OTHERWISE... 
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PROVIDING DRY AND RELATIVELY STABLE 
CONDITIONS TO THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS 
EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA IN THE VICINITY OF 27N82W. 
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY 
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE BEGINS TO 
INFLUENCE THE SW GULF WATERS. GLOBAL MODEL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST 
WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE SW GULF WATERS WITH THE PRIMARY 
IMPACT BEING INCREASED CONVECTION AND SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 
15 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE SW GULF S OF 25N W OF 90W TUESDAY AND 
WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH 
ATLC NEAR 25N69W SW TO OVER EASTERN CUBA TO 17N85W THAT 
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE CONCENTRATION OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE MOISTURE 
IS FOCUSED W OF 75W AND MORE SPECIFICALLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A 
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING ALONG 87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS 
ARE OCCURRING FROM 13N-223N BETWEEN 78W-90W...INCLUDING COASTAL 
CUBA AND INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA. WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST OF 
THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND 
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS HISPANIOLA...THE WINDWARD 
PASSAGE REGION...AND JAMAICA. FARTHER EAST...A WEAK TROPICAL 
WAVE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH 60W OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HOWEVER 
EXHIBITS RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A LACK OF ANY DEEP 
CONVECTION. IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE...LOW-LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS 
AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN 
60W-70W...AND ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 16N BETWEEN 61W-
66W THIS EVENING. LOOKING AHEAD...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS W OF 70W 
WERE NOTED ON EARLIER ASCAT PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE TROPICAL 
WAVE...AND AS THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W MOVES WEST 
OVERNIGHT...THE STRONGER TRADES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY 
S OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-80W. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                         
CURRENTLY OVER THE ISLAND...PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS 
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. MOST OF 
THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS 
EXTENDING NW OF THE ISLAND. WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE 
REMAINING IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...ISOLATED 
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL 
MOISTURE TO THE EAST ALSO CONTINUES TO ADVECT WESTWARD WITHIN 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                           
GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS W OF 70W OVER THE SW 
NORTH ATLC PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS AND SKIES THIS 
EVENING. THE NE FLOW IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A 
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF THE 
CAROLINAS NEAR 34N75W AND SUPPORTS A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 
28N69W. TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 32N...A 
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N54W TO 32N72W. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 29N-33N BETWEEN 
50W-66W. FURTHERMORE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED SOUTH OF 
THE SURFACE RIDGING NEAR 25N68W THAT CONTINUES TO ADVECT 
MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW 
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 18N-27N 
BETWEEN 60W-72W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND 
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WITH 
AXIS EXTENDING FROM A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N25W TO A 
1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N43W TO THE AFOREMENTIONED 1023 MB 
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N69W. OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACCOMPANY THE 
RIDGING...HOWEVER A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT DOES DIP INTO 
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N33W EXTENDING SW TO 29N39W IN 
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N37W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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Page last modified: Saturday, 30-Aug-2014 23:49:05 UTC