| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 192321
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
805 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 9N13W TO 
4N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 0N30W TO 1S41W TO THE 
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S44W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-4S BETWEEN 32W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS MOVING SE. A 
SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM W OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AT 30N83W TO 
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AT 26N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS OVER THE NE GULF...AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA N OF 26N 
E OF 87W. RADAR IMAGERY NOW SHOWS STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ALONG 
THE FLORIDA E COAST BETWEEN COCOA BEACH AND JACKSONVILLE. 
ELSEWHERE...THE GOES-R IFR PROBABILITY IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS FOG OR 
STRATUS CLOUDS OVER THE W GULF FROM 22N-28N W OF 93W. MOSTLY 
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NE GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S ALABAMA TO N OF TAMPICO 
MEXICO WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT 
AREA TO SHIFT E TO THE W ATLANTIC.  

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST 
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS OVER THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PUERTO 
RICO...HISPANIOLA...CUBA...BELIZE...AND GUATEMALA. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NW VENEZUELA...N 
COLOMBIA...AND PANAMA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER 
OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVELS NW FLOW 
IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. EXPECT LITTLE 
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW SUPPORTS SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS PATTERN IS 
FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

RADAR IMAGERY NOW SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE 
FLORIDA E COAST BETWEEN COCOA BEACH AND JACKSONVILLE. FURTHER 
E...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 
31N58W TO 29N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
FRONT. A 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 37N33W. A 
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS ALSO OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 
31N22W TO 26N30W TO 24N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM 
OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER 
THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN 65W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 
20N BETWEEN 55W-65W SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. ZONAL FLOW IS 
BETWEEN 35W-55W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N 
OF 20N E OF 35W SUPPORTING THE E ATLANTIC FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 
HOURS FOR THE CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC BE N OF 26N W OF 
70W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 
31N44W TO 28N65W WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC 
FRONT TO BE FULLY DISSIPATED. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Sunday, 19-Apr-2015 23:21:16 UTC