Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 281719

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
118 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.


A 1008 mb surface low is located near 30N24W. Gale-force winds 
are expected to the north and west of the low for the METEO- 
FRANCE areas of IRVING and METEOR. These conditions will diminish
in 24 hours as the low dissipates. For more details, please refer
to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast product that is listed on 


The Monsoon Trough remains over Africa. The ITCZ extends from
08N14W to 00N30W to 00N49W. Isolated showers are observed within
150 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 20W-40W. 



A surface ridge extends across the eastern half of the basin from
a high pressure currently centered over the north-central 
Atlantic. An area of low pressure extends centered over western
Texas extends across Mexico and the western half of the Gulf.
These features are generating enough pressure gradient to support
moderate southerly winds across the basin. No significant
convection is observed across the basin at this time. Over the 
next 24 hours, a strong southerly flow will develop over the 
western Gulf.


The pressure gradient across the basin is supporting moderate to 
fresh trades over the area, with strongest winds prevailing south
of 14N between 70W-77W. A diffluent flow prevails over the
northeast Caribbean mainly over Hispaniola and Puerto Rico
supporting cloudiness and isolated showers north of 17N and east 
of 72W. Dry air and subsidence are limiting convection across the 
remainder of the area. Over the next 24 hours, the showers and 
thunderstorms will increase over the southwestern Caribbean in 
response to low level convergence across the area. Otherwise, 
little change is expected.


A diffluent flow aloft prevails across the island supporting
cloudiness and isolated showers. Scattered moderate convection is
expected to develop in afternoon and evening hours. Similar
scenario is expected during the next 24 hours.


A broad area of high pressure prevails across the basin centered
near 39N46W. An upper-level trough with axis extending in diagonal
from 31N60W to 25N74W is enhancing convection in this area
affecting also the northwest Caribbean. To the east, a 1008 mb
surface low is centered near 30N24W. Please refer to the section 
above fro more information about this feature and the Gale Warning 
currently in effect. 

For additional information please visit 



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Page last modified: Friday, 28-Apr-2017 17:19:16 UTC